# Will Eva von Angern win the Saxony-Anhalt Minister-President election following the 2026 state election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 2 contracts — refreshed 29 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saxanhmp
Updated: 2026-08-24T22:20:50.126Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-06

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $457

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulrich Siegmund | 44¢ | ±0 | $457 | kalshi | /markets/will-ulrich-siegmund-win-the-saxony-anhalt-ministe-kalshi-kxsaxanhmp-26oct06-usie |
| Sven Schulze | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sven-schulze-win-the-saxony-anhalt-minister-p-kalshi-kxsaxanhmp-26oct06-ssch |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | 27 |
| 2026-08-17 | 37 |
| 2026-08-23 | 42 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Ulrich Siegmund −5pp 42→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Ulrich Siegmund +4pp 37→41¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Sven Schulze +3pp 38→41¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Eva von Angern becomes the next Minister-President of Saxony-Anhalt following the state election scheduled for 2026. At 21%, von Angern ranks third among tracked candidates, behind Ulrich Siegmund (35%) and Sven Schulze (27%). Her positioning reflects the fragmented nature of Saxony-Anhalt politics, where coalition-building after election results will determine the final outcome. The probability could shift based on two main factors: changes in polling data as the election approaches, and post-election negotiations between parties to form a governing coalition. The election itself, when held in 2026, will be the primary resolution event that clarifies whether von Angern can secure the position through either direct electoral strength or as a coalition compromise candidate.

### Key factors

- Von Angern's current contract price of 14¢ reflects lower market confidence compared to Siegmund (35¢) and Schulze (27¢), suggesting perceived structural disadvantages in coalition or polling dynamics
- Saxony-Anhalt elections depend heavily on coalition mathematics after voting; von Angern's probability depends partly on which parties gain seats and whether her party would be included in winning coalitions
- Polling trends and party performance in upcoming months will directly influence probability adjustments, as markets incorporate new survey data closer to the election date
- The three leading candidates collectively represent 73% probability, indicating substantial uncertainty about which candidate will ultimately lead the government
- Low trading volume on von Angern's contract ($0 in 24h volume at time of observation) suggests limited market activity and potential for probability shifts as interest increases

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saxanhmp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=saxanhmp
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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