# Will FDP win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 17 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saxanhone
Updated: 2026-09-24T13:20:51.813Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-09-06

## Headline

- Probability: 61% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FDP | 25¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fdp-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-saxony-an-kalshi-kxsaxanhone-26sep06-fdp |
| Greens | 97¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-greens-win-at-least-1-seat-in-the-2026-saxony-kalshi-kxsaxanhone-26sep06-gre |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | 92 |
| 2026-09-18 | 97 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-18 · Greens +7pp 90→97¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that the FDP will secure at least one seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The 31% market probability suggests modest but meaningful chances, though notably lower than predictions for larger parties. The FDP's performance depends heavily on whether it can sustain support above Germany's 5% national threshold, which varies significantly by state. Historical volatility in FDP support, combined with regional political dynamics in Saxony-Anhalt, creates substantial uncertainty. The resolution will occur on election day when official vote tallies are released, providing a clear binary outcome. Observers track FDP polling trends in the state and broader coalition dynamics among parties competing for relevance in eastern German elections.

### Key factors

- FDP's standing in Saxony-Anhalt polling relative to state-specific 5% threshold barriers
- Historical FDP volatility and recent performance in eastern German state elections
- Relative strength of competing small parties (Greens at 19¢, BSW at 41¢) in the same electoral contest
- Timing and methodology of official polling releases between now and election day
- Strategic voting patterns and coalition signals that may influence voter behavior toward smaller parties

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/saxanhone
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=saxanhone
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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