# Will Green Bay win the 2027 Pro Football Championship

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 5% across 13 contracts — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sb
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:33.480Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-02-13

## Headline

- Probability: 5% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $118K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston | 3¢ | — | $43K | kalshi | /markets/will-houston-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-hou |
| San Francisco | 5¢ | ±0 | $19K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-francisco-win-the-2027-pro-football-champ-kalshi-kxsb-27-sf |
| Buffalo | 6¢ | −1pp | $14K | kalshi | /markets/will-buffalo-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-buf |
| Dallas | 4¢ | +1pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-dallas-win-the-2027-pro-football-championship-kalshi-kxsb-27-dal |
| Los Angeles C | 5¢ | — | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-c-win-the-2027-pro-football-champ-kalshi-kxsb-27-lac |
| Chicago | 4¢ | — | $6K | kalshi | /markets/will-chicago-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-chi |
| Los Angeles R | 11¢ | +1pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-los-angeles-r-win-the-2027-pro-football-champ-kalshi-kxsb-27-lar |
| New England | 3¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-new-england-win-the-2027-pro-football-champio-kalshi-kxsb-27-ne |
| Cincinnati | 3¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-cincinnati-win-the-2027-pro-football-champion-kalshi-kxsb-27-cin |
| Denver | 4¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-denver-win-the-2027-pro-football-championship-kalshi-kxsb-27-den |
| Green Bay | 4¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-green-bay-win-the-2027-pro-football-champions-kalshi-kxsb-27-gb |
| Detroit | 5¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-detroit-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-det |
| Seattle | 8¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-seattle-win-the-2027-pro-football-championshi-kalshi-kxsb-27-sea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 8 |
| 2026-04-19 | 8 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-05-03 | 11 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates that Green Bay has a 1-in-20 chance of winning the 2027 NFL championship. The 5% assessment reflects the Packers' current roster construction and recent performance relative to other NFL teams. Key factors pushing this probability would include quarterback durability and performance, the strength of the offensive line, and defensive depth heading into the 2026 season. The probability could shift substantially based on offseason moves, injuries during training camp, and early-season results. The 2026 NFL season (beginning September 2026) will provide concrete data on team performance and health, serving as the primary driver of probability updates. The Super Bowl LXI in early February 2027 represents the final resolution event for this contract.

### Key factors

- Green Bay's quarterback health and performance through the 2026 regular season will directly impact playoff qualification odds
- Offensive line strength and run-game effectiveness determine whether the team can execute consistently in high-leverage games
- Defensive pass-rush capability and secondary coverage consistency are critical metrics in January playoff conditions
- Divisional competition within the NFC North and playoff seeding implications affect championship probability independent of absolute team quality
- Early 2026 offseason acquisitions and draft picks will establish the roster composition that determines Super Bowl LVII viability

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sb
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sb

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.