# Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 41200 total global stores in Q3 2026

> Above 41200 leads at 92%, runner-up 89% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbux
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:51.060Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-27

## Headline

- Leader: Above 41200 at 92%
- Runner-up: Above 2% at 89%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $59

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 41200 | 92¢ | ±0 | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41200-tota-kalshi-kxsbux-26julstores-41200 |
| Above 2% | 89¢ | +56pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-2-company-kalshi-kxsbux-26jultxgrw-2.0 |
| Above 3% | 82¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-3-company-kalshi-kxsbux-26jultxgrw-3.0 |
| Above 41300 | 70¢ | ±0 | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41300-tota-kalshi-kxsbux-26julstores-41300 |
| Above 4% | 60¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-4-company-kalshi-kxsbux-26jultxgrw-4.0 |
| Above 5% | 24¢ | +2pp | $48 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-5-company-kalshi-kxsbux-26jultxgrw-5.0 |
| Above 41400 | 20¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41400-tota-kalshi-kxsbux-26julstores-41400 |
| Above 41500 | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41500-tota-kalshi-kxsbux-26julstores-41500 |
| Above 6% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-6-company-kalshi-kxsbux-26jultxgrw-6.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 41200 | Above 2% | Above 3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 38 | 39 | 28 |
| 2026-06-11 | 92 | — | 80 |
| 2026-06-12 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 88 | 80 |
| 2026-06-18 | 92 | — | 80 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | — | 81 |
| 2026-06-20 | — | 33 | 81 |
| 2026-06-23 | 93 | 89 | 82 |
| 2026-06-25 | 92 | — | 82 |
| 2026-06-26 | 92 | — | — |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-23 · Above 2% +56pp 33→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Above 2% −55pp 88→33¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market confidence that Starbucks will operate at least 41,200 locations globally by the third quarter of 2026. The 90% probability suggests traders expect continued store expansion to reach this threshold, with the company's recent growth trajectory and expansion plans supporting the higher outcome. Key drivers include Starbucks' capital allocation priorities, international market penetration rates, and whether any store closures or slower-than-expected openings occur. The resolution will depend on Starbucks' official Q3 2026 earnings report, expected in late July or early August 2026, which will disclose exact store counts by geography and format. Related markets show traders are less confident about comparable transaction growth targets, with above-4% comps trading significantly lower than the store count question, suggesting execution risk around same-store sales remains a concern despite expansion optimism.

### Key factors

- Starbucks' reported store count at end of Q2 2026 and historical quarterly net unit growth rates (typically 3-5% annually)
- Capital expenditure guidance and management's public commitments regarding store openings versus closures for 2026
- Performance of key expansion markets (China, international markets) which represent the majority of planned unit growth
- Whether any macro headwinds (economic slowdown, real estate constraints, labor costs) materially alter the company's expansion timeline
- The comparable transaction growth outcomes, as weak same-store sales could trigger strategic pauses or closures affecting total unit count

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbux
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sbux

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.