# Will Starbucks Corporation report Above 7% comparable transactions growth in 2026

> Above 2% leads at 91%, runner-up 91% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbuxa
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.643Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2% at 91%
- Runner-up: Above 41300 at 91%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $41

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2% | 91¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-2-comparab-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28jancomptxn-2 |
| Above 41300 | 91¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41300-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41300 |
| Above 41400 | 86¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41400-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41400 |
| Above 3% | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-3-comparab-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28jancomptxn-3 |
| Above 41500 | 70¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41500-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41500 |
| Above 4% | 59¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-4-comparab-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28jancomptxn-4 |
| Above 41600 | 40¢ | ±0 | $41 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41600-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41600 |
| Above 5% | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-5-comparab-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28jancomptxn-5 |
| Above 368 thousand | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-368-thousa-kalshi-kxsbuxa-26novhead-368000 |
| Above 41700 | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41700-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41700 |
| Above 371 thousand | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-371-thousa-kalshi-kxsbuxa-26novhead-371000 |
| Above 374 thousand | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-374-thousa-kalshi-kxsbuxa-26novhead-374000 |
| Above 377 thousand | 8¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-377-thousa-kalshi-kxsbuxa-26novhead-377000 |
| Above 41800 | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-41800-tota-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28janstores-41800 |
| Above 6% | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-6-comparab-kalshi-kxsbuxa-28jancomptxn-6 |
| Above 380 thousand | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-corporation-report-above-380-thousa-kalshi-kxsbuxa-26novhead-380000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2% | Above 41300 | Above 41400 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 94 | — | — |
| 2026-07-28 | 93 | — | 86 |
| 2026-07-29 | 93 | 90 | 83 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | — | 87 |
| 2026-08-11 | 91 | 91 | 85 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | 85 |
| 2026-08-19 | 76 | 76 | 84 |
| 2026-08-20 | 50 | 71 | 84 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | 86 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 2% −26pp 76→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above 41500 +16pp 53→69¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above 41600 +15pp 25→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 3% +14pp 62→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 4% +13pp 45→58¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Starbucks will report comparable transaction growth exceeding 7% for the full year 2026. The 92% price on this outcome sits at the high end of the contract range, suggesting traders view above-7% growth as significantly more likely than slower growth. Two main drivers shape this view: first, Starbucks' recent operational momentum and pricing actions, which have supported comparable sales growth; second, the baseline assumption that modest mid-single-digit growth (the 2% and 3% thresholds trade in the 92% and 78% range respectively) is already well-embedded, making 7% a moderately stretched but plausible target. The key uncertainty resolves when Starbucks reports full-year 2026 fiscal results, typically announced in early 2027. Market-level consumer spending trends, coffee demand shifts, and company-specific execution on store productivity will determine the actual outcome.

### Key factors

- Comparable sales growth of 3% trades at 78¢ versus 92% for 2% growth, indicating traders assign meaningful probability to growth stalling between 2% and 7%
- Starbucks' store count contracts cluster around 41,300–41,600 locations, reflecting uncertainty on expansion pace and potential closures that could pressure unit-level productivity
- The wide spread between the 7% threshold and lower tiers suggests 7% represents an optimistic but non-consensus outcome rather than a near-certainty
- Historical Starbucks comparable sales performance and current macroeconomic conditions (consumer spending, inflation trends) will directly shape execution
- Final resolution depends on Starbucks' official 2026 fiscal year earnings report, scheduled for release in early 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbuxa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sbuxa

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