# Will Starbucks Monthly Credit Card Spend for August 2026 be above 105

> Above 100 leads at 61%, runner-up 58% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbuxcc
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:49.654Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-07

## Headline

- Leader: Above 100 at 61%
- Runner-up: Above 100.5 at 58%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 100 | 61¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t100 |
| Above 100.5 | 58¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t100.5 |
| Above 101 | 53¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t101 |
| Above 101.5 | 50¢ | −2pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t101.5 |
| Above 102 | 46¢ | +1pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t102 |
| Above 102.5 | 42¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t102.5 |
| Above 103 | 37¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t103 |
| Above 103.5 | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t103.5 |
| Above 104 | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t104 |
| Above 104.5 | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t104.5 |
| Above 105 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t105 |
| Above 105.5 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t105.5 |
| Above 106 | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-starbucks-monthly-credit-card-spend-for-augus-kalshi-kxsbuxcc-26sep07-t106 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 100 | Above 100.5 | Above 101 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | 61 | 60 | 59 |
| 2026-08-05 | 65 | 63 | 64 |
| 2026-08-06 | 70 | 69 | 61 |
| 2026-08-07 | 67 | 58 | 44 |
| 2026-08-09 | 61 | 57 | 53 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 58 | — |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Above 103 −21pp 53→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 103.5 −20pp 48→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 102.5 −18pp 55→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 101 −17pp 61→44¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Above 104 −17pp 43→26¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The market is pricing roughly even odds that Starbucks' August 2026 credit card spending will exceed $105 million. The probability reflects uncertainty around consumer spending patterns during late summer, when promotional activity and seasonal traffic typically influence transaction volumes. Key drivers include back-to-school spending dynamics, summer travel patterns, and competitive promotional environments from rival chains. The resolution will depend on actual reported credit card transaction data for August 2026, typically released by payment processors or Starbucks in early September. The tight clustering of contract prices around 50-51 cents across multiple thresholds suggests the market sees the outcome as genuinely uncertain rather than favoring either outcome substantially.

### Key factors

- Starbucks' promotional calendar and pricing strategy for August 2026, particularly any limited-time offers or premium product launches
- Consumer discretionary spending patterns during late summer, influenced by employment levels and wage growth data through August
- Year-over-year comparison to August 2025 credit card volumes, which establishes the baseline for growth or decline assessment
- Competitive activity from other coffee chains and quick-service restaurants during the same period
- Attribution accuracy: whether reported figures isolate Starbucks-branded credit card transactions or include licensed locations and payment method variations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sbuxcc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sbuxcc

## License

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