# SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5)

> SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) leads at 22%, runner-up 7% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 8 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-sc
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.664Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) at 22%
- Runner-up: SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) at 7%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | 22¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x228068d3c7abb231443311231f66a7277ec1b8b706d1e4fb00ac1be8d14028a5 |
| SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x47e3488c7d5e9617579a9b217c0b9666f97b3901eb67559cfa8d15adf38c27af |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | SC Corinthians Paulista (-1.5) | SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-05-08 | 22 | 8 |
| 2026-05-09 | 23 | 8 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · SC Corinthians Paulista (-2.5) −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract prices the probability that SC Corinthians Paulista will win by more than 1.5 goals against São Paulo FC at 19%, implying market participants consider it an unlikely but non-negligible outcome. The low probability reflects that a two-goal margin is a significant threshold in football; most direct head-to-head matches between rivals produce closer results or victories by single goals. The current pricing depends on recent form disparities between the clubs, available team lineups, and historical performance in this fixture. Resolution depends on the scheduled match outcome whenever it is contested; any shift in injury status or team momentum leading up to kickoff could materially adjust expectations. The minimal trading volume suggests limited market depth on these specific contracts, meaning prices may not fully reflect all available information about the teams' current states.

### Key factors

- Current form of both squads: win/loss/draw records in recent matches strongly influence spread likelihood
- Head-to-head historical patterns: whether this fixture typically produces decisive margins or closer contests
- Team absences: key injuries or suspensions that reduce either squad's attacking or defensive capability
- Venue and condition: home advantage and pitch conditions can affect goal-scoring patterns
- Market depth: low 24h trading volume ($0) suggests the price may not reflect recent developments or sharp assessment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-sc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-sc

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