# SC Corinthians Paulista vs. São Paulo FC - More Markets: São Paulo FC (-1.5)

> São Paulo FC (-1.5) leads at 7%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-so
Updated: 2026-05-09T08:20:27.008Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-10

## Headline

- Leader: São Paulo FC (-1.5) at 7%
- Runner-up: São Paulo FC (-2.5) at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Paulo FC (-1.5) | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x7a23045c3c8986d67f665608fcba906ee9fff7cb0183a996541b69ae5e210df9 |
| São Paulo FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | −1pp | $20 | polymarket | /markets/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-market-polymarket-0xa7d3114a73d0745d1c37567362d10664951125452a335d5b0dfabb308cd4d597 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | São Paulo FC (-1.5) | São Paulo FC (-2.5) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-07 | 12 | 10 |
| 2026-05-08 | 10 | 4 |
| 2026-05-09 | 9 | 3 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · São Paulo FC (-2.5) −6pp 10→4¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects an 11% probability that São Paulo FC will win by at least 1.5 goals against SC Corinthians Paulista in an upcoming match. The low probability suggests markets expect either a Corinthians victory or a narrower São Paulo margin of victory. Relevant factors include recent form, head-to-head records, team injuries, and home-field advantage. Resolution depends on the final score when the match concludes. Low trading volume ($0 in 24h) indicates minimal market activity, which may limit price precision and liquidity. The probability could shift based on team news, lineup confirmations, or weather conditions closer to kickoff. Analysts tracking this outcome would compare current odds against their own assessment of each team's likelihood of winning by 1.5+ goals, accounting for recent performance trends and historical matchup data.

### Key factors

- Recent form and win-loss records of both teams over the last 10 matches
- Head-to-head historical results between Corinthians and São Paulo in similar competition contexts
- Confirmed injuries, suspensions, or roster changes that materially affect either team's attacking or defensive capability
- Home or neutral venue status and how it correlates with team performance in this rivalry
- Betting market consensus on match winner vs. this specific -1.5 spread, indicating whether the low probability reflects expectation of a close result or Corinthians dominance

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-so
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sc-corinthians-paulista-vs-so-paulo-fc-more-markets-so

## License

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