# Will Max Diaz be the Democratic nominee for SC-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc01d
Updated: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 37% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Lacore | 67¢ | +3pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-nancy-lacore-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-sc-kalshi-kxsc01d-26-nlac |
| Mac Deford | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mac-deford-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-sc-0-kalshi-kxsc01d-26-mdef |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-19 | 18 |
| 2026-06-03 | 46 |
| 2026-06-10 | 41 |
| 2026-06-13 | 37 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-11 · Nancy Lacore −9pp 77→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Mac Deford −9pp 14→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-12 · Nancy Lacore −3pp 68→65¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Nancy Lacore +3pp 65→68¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment of the likelihood that Max Diaz becomes the Democratic nominee for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 32%, Diaz is positioned as a secondary contender behind Nancy Lacore, who is trading at 78% and appears to be the frontrunner. The relatively modest probability for Diaz reflects either lower name recognition, fewer endorsements, or less funding compared to leading candidates. Key factors affecting this probability include candidate fundraising totals, endorsements from party officials, polling data in the district, and voter registration trends. The primary catalyst for resolution will be the Democratic primary election itself, typically held in March during election years. Between now and then, performance in any early straw polls, organizational capacity demonstrated through field staff hiring, and media coverage of the race would likely move this probability in either direction.

### Key factors

- Nancy Lacore's 78% probability suggests she maintains significant structural advantages; any erosion of her support would directly increase Diaz's probability
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand reports filed with the FEC provide quantifiable measures of campaign viability that markets typically respond to
- Mac Deford at 23% represents a third-place candidate; consolidation of support behind one of the top two would likely shift this probability downward
- The primary election date and any scheduled debates or forums offer concrete moments where relative candidate performance becomes measurable
- Voter turnout models and demographic shifts in SC-01 between now and primary day affect which candidate's coalition has structural advantages

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc01d
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sc01d
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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