# Will Sam McCown be the Republican nominee for SC-01

> Closed. Last odds frozen 18 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc01r
Updated: 2026-06-16T07:20:50.157Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-09

## Headline

- Probability: 52% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $884

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenny Costa Honeycutt | 47¢ | +7pp | $612 | kalshi | /markets/will-jenny-costa-honeycutt-be-the-republican-nomin-kalshi-kxsc01r-26-jhon |
| Mark Smith | 56¢ | +4pp | $272 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-smith-be-the-republican-nominee-for-sc-0-kalshi-kxsc01r-26-msmi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 37 |
| 2026-06-03 | 72 |
| 2026-06-10 | 27 |
| 2026-06-15 | 47 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · Mark Smith −52pp 72→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Mark Smith +26pp 20→46¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Jenny Costa Honeycutt +17pp 16→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-11 · Jenny Costa Honeycutt +10pp 33→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-15 · Jenny Costa Honeycutt +7pp 40→47¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Sam McCown will secure the Republican nomination for South Carolina's 1st congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests McCown is a moderate contender but faces competition or headwinds within the Republican primary process. The key drivers of this probability are McCown's existing political infrastructure and name recognition in the district, balanced against potential opposition from other candidates with stronger conservative credentials or grassroots support. The outcome will be determined primarily by the South Carolina Republican primary voting results for SC-01, scheduled for March 2026, when voters will directly choose their nominee.

### Key factors

- McCown's vote share in any completed primary elections or early polling data within SC-01
- Number and strength of competing Republican primary candidates in the district
- Campaign funding and expenditure levels compared to other nominees in the race
- Regional endorsements from established Republican figures and party leadership in South Carolina
- Turnout patterns and voter demographics in SC-01 compared to historical primary participation rates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sc01r
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sc01r
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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