# Will Noor Tarun win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scarboroswby
Updated: 2026-09-04T19:21:45.676Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 32% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $18K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fatima Shaban | 88¢ | +33pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-fatima-shaban-win-the-2026-scarborough-southw-kalshi-kxscarboroswby-26sep03-fsha |
| Noor Tarun | 3¢ | −1pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-noor-tarun-win-the-2026-scarborough-southwest-kalshi-kxscarboroswby-26sep03-ntar |
| Ahsanul Hafiz | 5¢ | −14pp | $587 | kalshi | /markets/will-ahsanul-hafiz-win-the-2026-scarborough-southw-kalshi-kxscarboroswby-26sep03-ahaf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | 25 |
| 2026-09-03 | 31 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-03 · Fatima Shaban +33pp 53→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-03 · Ahsanul Hafiz −14pp 18→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the estimated chance that Noor Tarun will win the Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election in Ontario in 2026. The 32% estimate suggests Tarun is considered a competitive but not favored candidate in this race. The main factors driving this probability are the strength of the incumbent party's organizational capacity, local voter demographics and turnout patterns, and the relative name recognition and campaign resources of competing candidates. The by-election result itself will be the primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty, though pre-election polling and campaign spending reports in the weeks leading up to voting day could shift market expectations. Kalshi contracts show significant divergence in implied probabilities across candidates, with another candidate currently trading at 70 cents, indicating substantial uncertainty about the final outcome.

### Key factors

- Fatima Shaban currently trades at 70¢ while Noor Tarun trades at 4¢, suggesting market participants view Shaban as the stronger candidate despite both competing in the same race
- Ahsanul Hafiz's 21¢ price indicates a three-way competitive field where no single candidate commands majority expectations
- The 0 trading volume across all three contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited recent market activity and potential illiquidity in pricing
- Tarun's 32% aggregated probability exceeds the individual contract price of 4¢, indicating possible data aggregation or multi-contract weighting effects
- The identity and party affiliation of candidates relative to local riding demographics and provincial political trends will directly determine vote share and election outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scarboroswby
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scarboroswby
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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