# Scotland vs. Brazil

> Brazil leads at 72%, runner-up 18% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotland-vs-brazil
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.504Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-24

## Headline

- Leader: Brazil at 72%
- Runner-up: Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil) at 18%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 72¢ | +1pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-brazil-brazil-polymarket-0xd14544ac7360f37de17eb6a442694de21a8c5ea01714323be6409b002c4d7d7d |
| Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil) | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-brazil-draw-scotland-vs-brazil-polymarket-0xa46926b0bdef66209285cddc3a0fa99e371cccd7459a39693ae7ab76f38d80e7 |
| Scotland | 17¢ | ±0 | $24 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-brazil-scotland-polymarket-0x15ae32bb6f46f35220af9e623242dbcafffc965770a298316699a6ac2bb11b56 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Brazil | Draw (Scotland vs. Brazil) | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 72 | — | 13 |
| 2026-05-01 | 72 | 20 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | 72 | 20 | 14 |
| 2026-05-03 | 72 | 19 | 14 |
| 2026-05-07 | 72 | 19 | 14 |
| 2026-05-08 | 71 | 18 | 15 |
| 2026-05-09 | 72 | — | 15 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 72% probability reflects market expectations that Scotland will win in a matchup against Brazil. The probability suggests Brazil is viewed as a strong favorite, though the market also prices in meaningful uncertainty—Scotland retains roughly a one-in-four chance according to this assessment. Market prices across multiple venues show variance, with Brazil priced at 48¢ on one exchange and Scotland at just 14¢ on another, indicating either different contract structures or pricing inefficiency. The outcome will depend on team form, recent performance metrics, and head-to-head dynamics at the time of competition. Resolution will occur when the match concludes and the winner is officially determined.

### Key factors

- Brazil's current FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Scotland's form going into the fixture
- Venue location and any home-field advantage factors that affect match conditions
- Player availability and injury status for both squads in the days leading up to kickoff
- Variance in probability across different prediction markets (Kalshi vs. Polymarket) suggests either contract specification differences or temporary pricing discrepancies
- Historical head-to-head record and performance trends in similar competitive environments

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotland-vs-brazil
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotland-vs-brazil

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.