# Scotland vs. Morocco

> Morocco leads at 46%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotland-vs-morocco
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:28.508Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-19

## Headline

- Leader: Morocco at 46%
- Runner-up: Draw (Scotland vs. Morocco) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-morocco-morocco-polymarket-0xbc28e92d1fa999e842caf926cff56a580fb477f26d8c44c99aa29beb78062241 |
| Draw (Scotland vs. Morocco) | 30¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-morocco-draw-scotland-vs-morocco-polymarket-0x577cffeb67b4b292a9f8e29b967e5de1c409333fabb752cf5057768c5e900422 |
| Scotland | 25¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/scotland-vs-morocco-scotland-polymarket-0x5fac5a47f11802e8a7b82d76e05461bd4551fe199041fb45c5e6228c56532d4a |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Morocco | Draw (Scotland vs. Morocco) | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 47 | 31 | 26 |
| 2026-05-02 | 48 | 31 | 25 |
| 2026-05-09 | 48 | 30 | 26 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Morocco −3pp 50→47¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Morocco is priced as the slight favorite to beat Scotland, with a 49% implied probability compared to Scotland's 31%. This reflects trading activity across three outcome contracts with modest volume. The pricing suggests traders view Morocco as marginally more likely to win, though the market shows material uncertainty given the 18-percentage-point gap between the two leading outcomes. Key drivers include each team's recent form, head-to-head historical matchup results, and squad strength assessments. The primary resolution event is the scheduled match between these teams, which will determine the actual outcome and settle all associated contracts. Current trading volume remains relatively light, suggesting the market may reprice as the match date approaches and additional information becomes available.

### Key factors

- Morocco is priced 18 percentage points higher than Scotland, indicating modest rather than substantial confidence in a Morocco victory
- Only $10 in 24-hour volume on the Scotland vs. Morocco contract suggests thin liquidity and potential for repricing
- The third outcome in this market (neither Scotland nor Morocco advancing or other specified result) captures 20% of implied probability, indicating meaningful uncertainty about match structure or definition
- Brazil is priced much higher (60¢) in its matchup, suggesting relative team strength assessments may be influencing Scotland-Morocco pricing
- No specific match date is provided in available data, making the timeline to resolution unclear and potentially affecting trader positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotland-vs-morocco
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotland-vs-morocco

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.