# SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...

> July 31 leads at 14%, runner-up 13% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.110Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: July 31 at 14%
- Runner-up: December 31 at 13%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $129

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 14¢ | — | $100 | polymarket | /markets/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-july-polymarket-0x139ba0e7f931f09466c0fb27fc8ddb5e77ce9d1e2bdc953a5f22765bf779452f |
| December 31 | 13¢ | +1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case-by-decem-polymarket-0x68e2344a2ce725ca99f3b93df06f27a71f3a893a38e8a6a78f8d85bd2698eb20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | July 31 | December 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 64 |
| 2026-04-12 | 14 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 33 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 28 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 21 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · December 31 −7pp 27→20¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that the Supreme Court will accept a sports event contract case by a specific deadline. At 27%, the market suggests this outcome is considered unlikely but plausible. The probability is primarily driven by the number of relevant sports contract disputes currently in lower courts and the Supreme Court's historical willingness to grant certiorari on commercial law matters. Upward pressure could come from a high-profile appellate ruling that raises the case's national significance or splits circuit court precedent, while downward pressure would result from cases being settled, dismissed, or the Court declining to hear petitions. The key catalyst is the Supreme Court's monthly petition conference schedule, where justices decide which cases to accept. The actual resolution depends on whether a qualifying case receives the required four votes for certiorari by the specified deadline.

### Key factors

- The number of sports contract cases currently pending in federal appellate courts and their likelihood of reaching Supreme Court petition stage by the deadline
- The Supreme Court's historical grant rate for commercial law and contract disputes, typically 1-2% of petitions
- Whether any pending case develops a circuit split or involves constitutional questions that would increase certiorari appeal
- The specific definition and scope of 'sports event contract case' in the question's terms, which determines which cases qualify
- Recent trends in sports litigation and whether new disputes have emerged that would generate petitions matching the question's criteria

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotus-accepts-sports-event-contract-case

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.