# Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Republican National Committee in Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota

> Before Aug 1, 2028 leads at 87%, runner-up 77% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotuscase
Updated: 2026-07-26T04:20:49.493Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Aug 1, 2028 at 87%
- Runner-up: Before Aug 1, 2028 at 77%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $126

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-internatio-kalshi-kxscotuscase-intfer28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 77¢ | +26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-daniel-gra-kalshi-kxscotuscase-gracit28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 77¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-kenneth-j-kalshi-kxscotuscase-jouala28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 74¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-apple-inc-kalshi-kxscotuscase-appepi28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-united-sta-kalshi-kxscotuscase-deppru28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 67¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-floyd-d-jo-kalshi-kxscotuscase-johusa28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 65¢ | +23pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-hamed-kian-kalshi-kxscotuscase-kiaflo28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 65¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-eric-guerr-kalshi-kxscotuscase-guejon28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 62¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-republican-kalshi-kxscotuscase-rncmif28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 60¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-leonard-w-kalshi-kxscotuscase-hofwbi28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 60¢ | +18pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-francis-ni-kalshi-kxscotuscase-niewat28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 58¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-kevin-isaa-kalshi-kxscotuscase-monlig28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-kenneth-ge-kalshi-kxscotuscase-genbla28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 54¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-kendrick-j-kalshi-kxscotuscase-beausa28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 52¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-william-ma-kalshi-kxscotuscase-maxtho28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-riseandshi-kalshi-kxscotuscase-rispep28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 37¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-michael-sa-kalshi-kxscotuscase-salpar28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-department-kalshi-kxscotuscase-dolsun28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-thomas-cro-kalshi-kxscotuscase-croboa28 |
| Before Aug 1, 2028 | 27¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-supreme-court-rule-in-favor-of-winston-r-kalshi-kxscotuscase-andint28 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Aug 1, 2028 | Before Aug 1, 2028 | Before Aug 1, 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | 86 | 51 | 76 |
| 2026-07-25 | 87 | 77 | 77 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-25 · Before Aug 1, 2028 +26pp 51→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Before Aug 1, 2028 +23pp 62→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Before Aug 1, 2028 +18pp 42→60¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Before Aug 1, 2028 +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Before Aug 1, 2028 +3pp 49→52¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction reflects market participants' assessment that the Supreme Court is likely to rule in favor of the Republican National Committee in their legal challenge against Mi Familia Vota, currently priced at 86% likelihood. The high probability suggests strong confidence in the RNC's position, though the runner-up outcome at 76% indicates meaningful uncertainty remains. The probability is likely influenced by the composition and recent ideological alignment of the current Supreme Court, as well as the specific legal merits and standing arguments presented in the case. Resolution depends on the Court's formal decision, which typically comes months after oral arguments. Market participants would adjust this estimate based on oral argument quality, any opinions from lower courts in related cases, or public statements from justices that signal judicial thinking on the underlying legal issues.

### Key factors

- Current Supreme Court ideological composition favors outcomes aligned with RNC positions
- Specific nature of RNC's legal claims and whether justices grant standing to hear the case
- Quality and reception of oral arguments and briefs in this particular dispute
- Precedent from related voting rights and organizational standing cases decided in recent years
- Timeline to decision unclear—resolution date is not specified, creating extended uncertainty period

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotuscase
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotuscase
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.