# What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term

> 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals leads at 72%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotuspower-29
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:36:01.144Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals at 72%
- Runner-up: 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $637

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals | 72¢ | +1pp | $166 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r6-3 |
| 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals | 11¢ | +2pp | $7 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r7-2 |
| Not nine justices | 7¢ | −2pp | $464 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r0-0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals | 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals | Not nine justices |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | — | 14 | — |
| 2026-04-09 | 67 | — | — |
| 2026-04-11 | 67 | — | 9 |
| 2026-04-17 | 71 | — | 8 |
| 2026-04-18 | 72 | — | 8 |
| 2026-04-28 | 73 | 8 | 9 |
| 2026-04-29 | — | 9 | — |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 11 | 7 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals −6pp 14→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents traders' assessment that the Supreme Court will have 6 conservative justices and 3 liberal justices when Trump's presidency ends in January 2029. The 72% probability reflects expectations about potential vacancies and confirmation outcomes during his term. Several factors drive this probability: current vacancy predictions on the conservative and liberal wings, confirmation dynamics in the Senate, and the ages and health status of sitting justices. The primary catalyst for resolution will be actual vacancies occurring during Trump's term—whenever a sitting justice retires or passes away. Secondary catalysts include Senate composition changes after the 2026 midterms, which could affect confirmation likelihood. The runner-up outcome at 11% suggests significant uncertainty remains about whether Trump will have the opportunity to make any appointments at all, or whether circumstances could lead to different court compositions than the base case predicts.

### Key factors

- Current age and publicly disclosed health status of all nine sitting justices, particularly conservative justices Alito (75), Thomas (77), and liberal justices Sotomayor (72) and Kagan (65)
- Senate composition and confirmation capacity—whether Republicans maintain sufficient votes to confirm Trump appointees through 2029
- Trump administration appointment strategy and whether nominated candidates pass Senate scrutiny
- Actual vacancy timing—whether any justice retires, passes away, or recuses themselves before Trump's term ends
- Historical precedent for vacancies during four-year presidential terms and typical retirement patterns among aging justices

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotuspower-29
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotuspower-29
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.