# Will John Roberts resign during Trump's term

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 4 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotusresign
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.647Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $406

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Alito | 58¢ | ±0 | $406 | kalshi | /markets/will-samuel-alito-resign-during-trumps-term-samuel-kalshi-kxscotusresign-29-sa |
| Sonia Sotomayor | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sonia-sotomayor-resign-during-trumps-term-son-kalshi-kxscotusresign-29-ss |
| Clarence Thomas | 40¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-clarence-thomas-resign-during-trumps-term-cla-kalshi-kxscotusresign-29-ct |
| John Roberts | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-roberts-resign-during-trumps-term-john-r-kalshi-kxscotusresign-29-jr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 66 |
| 2026-04-25 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-08 | 59 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Samuel Alito +4pp 57→61¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Samuel Alito −3pp 62→59¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a roughly one-in-three chance that Chief Justice John Roberts will resign from the Supreme Court during Donald Trump's current presidency, which runs through January 2029. The 32% level reflects uncertainty about whether health concerns, institutional pressures, or other personal factors might prompt his departure. The main drivers are Roberts' age (currently 69) and health trajectory, along with broader political dynamics that could influence his decision calculus. A key catalyst would be any public announcement regarding his health status or retirement plans, which would immediately resolve much of the current uncertainty. The contract data shown primarily tracks Trump-related events rather than Roberts-specific developments, suggesting limited direct market activity specifically on his resignation decision.

### Key factors

- Roberts' current age and publicly disclosed health status would be direct indicators of resignation likelihood
- Any announcement from the Supreme Court or Roberts' chambers regarding retirement plans would immediately clarify the question
- Historical Supreme Court retirement patterns show few justices serve past their mid-80s, making timeline and health trajectory material factors
- Trump administration policies affecting the Court's jurisdiction or legitimacy could influence Roberts' calculations about staying versus leaving
- Media reporting on Roberts' behind-the-scenes views on Court dynamics or institutional concerns would provide evidence of his decision-making

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scotusresign
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scotusresign
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.