# Will Mike Lee become the next Justice on the Supreme Court

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scourt
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.966Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-21

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aileen Cannon | 9¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aileen-cannon-become-the-next-justice-on-the-kalshi-kxscourt-29-ac |
| Andrew Oldham | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-andrew-oldham-become-the-next-justice-on-the-kalshi-kxscourt-29-ao |
| Amul Thapar | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-amul-tharpar-become-the-next-justice-on-the-s-kalshi-kxscourt-29-at |
| James Ho | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-james-ho-become-the-next-justice-on-the-supre-kalshi-kxscourt-29-jh |
| D. John Sauer | 9¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-d-john-sauer-become-the-next-justice-on-the-s-kalshi-kxscourt-29-jsau |
| Kenneth Lee | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kenneth-lee-become-the-next-justice-on-the-su-kalshi-kxscourt-29-kl |
| Mike Lee | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-lee-become-the-next-justice-on-the-supre-kalshi-kxscourt-29-ml |
| Neomi Rao | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-neomi-rao-become-the-next-justice-on-the-supr-kalshi-kxscourt-29-nr |
| Patrick Bumatay | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-bumatay-become-the-next-justice-on-th-kalshi-kxscourt-29-pb |
| Ron DeSantis | 7¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ron-desantis-become-the-next-justice-on-the-s-kalshi-kxscourt-29-rdes |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 6 |
| 2026-06-11 | 15 |
| 2026-06-18 | 5 |
| 2026-06-25 | 7 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Ron DeSantis +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that U.S. Senator Mike Lee from Utah becomes the next Supreme Court Justice. Currently valued at 7%, this reflects a relatively low position among other judicial candidates being tracked. The level appears influenced by two primary factors: whether a vacancy occurs on the Court and, if one does, whether President Trump nominates Lee as his choice. Lee has strong conservative credentials and prior judicial experience, but the market shows higher confidence in other potential nominees like John Sauer and James Ho. The resolution of this contract depends on whether an actual Supreme Court vacancy materializes and the nomination decisions made in response. Major shifts in this probability would likely occur following an announced retirement or death of a sitting Justice, combined with signals about Trump's nomination preferences.

### Key factors

- Current Supreme Court composition has nine sitting justices with no announced retirements as of May 2026, making nomination timing highly uncertain
- Lee's judicial background and conservative track record provide a plausible nomination path, but market participants assign higher probabilities to competing candidates John Sauer (5¢) and James Ho (12¢)
- Trump's explicit nomination statements or public signals about intended nominees would significantly move probabilities for specific candidates
- An actual Supreme Court vacancy announcement would likely shift total probability mass among all candidates rather than increase Lee's relative standing
- Market volume remains low across judicial nomination contracts ($621 for the top contract), suggesting limited information certainty and potential for repricing based on new political developments

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scourt
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scourt

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.