# Will South Carolina total container volume for 2026 be above 2.5 million TEUs

> Above 2.2 million TEUs leads at 93%, runner-up 85% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scportteu
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:51.212Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 2.2 million TEUs at 93%
- Runner-up: Above 2.3 million TEUs at 85%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 2.2 million TEUs | 93¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.2 |
| Above 2.3 million TEUs | 85¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.3 |
| Above 2.4 million TEUs | 56¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.4 |
| Above 2.5 million TEUs | 18¢ | −14pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.5 |
| Above 2.6 million TEUs | 8¢ | −5pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.6 |
| Above 2.7 million TEUs | 4¢ | ±0 | $93 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-carolina-total-container-volume-for-202-kalshi-kxscportteu-27jan31-t2.7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 2.2 million TEUs | Above 2.3 million TEUs | Above 2.4 million TEUs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | 92 | 81 | 33 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-08-20 | 94 | 57 | 44 |
| 2026-08-23 | 92 | 82 | — |
| 2026-08-24 | — | 84 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-23 · Above 2.3 million TEUs +25pp 57→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 2.3 million TEUs −24pp 81→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-19 · Above 2.4 million TEUs +24pp 33→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 2.5 million TEUs −14pp 30→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 2.4 million TEUs −13pp 57→44¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures whether South Carolina's seaports will handle more than 2.5 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) of containerized cargo during 2026. The 26% probability reflects skepticism that the state will reach this threshold. Port throughput depends primarily on regional import-export demand, shipping line routing decisions, and competitive pressure from neighboring ports like Savannah. The probability spread across contracts (93% for 2.2M TEUs down to 26% for 2.5M TEUs) suggests consensus that South Carolina will likely exceed 2.2 million but faces uncertainty reaching higher volumes. Year-end 2026 port statistics, typically published in Q1 2027, will definitively resolve the outcome. Current shipping patterns, terminal capacity utilization, and any announced infrastructure expansions will materially influence whether volumes trending toward or above 2.5 million materialize.

### Key factors

- South Carolina ports handled approximately 2.1-2.2 million TEUs in recent years; reaching 2.5M represents 12-19% growth over baseline
- Port of Charleston competes directly with Port of Savannah and other Southeast terminals for market share; routing decisions by major carriers affect throughput allocation
- Terminal capacity constraints and labor availability at Charleston limit near-term volume growth independent of demand
- Year-to-date 2026 volume data through August will indicate trajectory, with final annual figures published in early 2027
- Announced or funded port expansion projects (berths, cranes, rail access) affect ability to handle incremental volume above current operational baselines

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scportteu
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scportteu

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.