# Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 16% across 6 contracts — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/screwwormcount
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:11.048Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 16% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $79

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0 | 32¢ | +2pp | $79 | kalshi | /markets/above-0-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-t-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a0 |
| Above 1 | 23¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/above-1-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-t-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a1 |
| Above 10 | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/above-10-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a10 |
| Above 2 | 17¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/above-2-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-t-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a2 |
| Above 3 | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/above-3-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-t-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a3 |
| Above 5 | 8¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/above-5-new-world-screwworm-infestation-cases-in-t-kalshi-kxscrewwormcount-27jan01-a5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | 15 |
| 2026-05-21 | 38 |
| 2026-05-27 | 13 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-22 · Above 0 −4pp 38→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 3 −4pp 16→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-23 · Above 0 −3pp 34→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-26 · Above 1 −3pp 25→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-24 · Above 2 −3pp 20→17¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/screwwormcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=screwwormcount

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.