# Will Rom Reddy qualify for the runoff in the 2026 South Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 51% across 2 contracts — refreshed 1 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrgovadvance
Updated: 2026-06-10T02:20:07.023Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 51% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $781

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pamela Evette | 97¢ | +6pp | $564 | kalshi | /markets/will-pamela-evette-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-2-kalshi-kxscrgovadvance-26jun09-peve |
| Ralph Norman | 4¢ | −21pp | $218 | kalshi | /markets/will-ralph-norman-qualify-for-the-runoff-in-the-20-kalshi-kxscrgovadvance-26jun09-rnor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 39 |
| 2026-06-09 | 58 |
| 2026-06-10 | 51 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-09 · Pamela Evette +30pp 63→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Ralph Norman −21pp 23→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-09 · Ralph Norman +9pp 14→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-10 · Pamela Evette +6pp 93→99¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Rom Reddy will finish in the top two candidates in South Carolina's Republican gubernatorial primary and advance to a runoff. The 64% probability sits between clear frontrunners Alan Wilson (85%) and Pamela Evette (88%), suggesting Reddy is viewed as a competitive but not dominant candidate. Primary performance typically depends on candidate visibility, campaign funding, endorsements, and voter alignment within the party. The primary election itself will definitively resolve this market, determining the actual top two finishers. Movement in this probability would likely reflect polling data shifts, campaign announcements, or changes in candidate viability that alter perceptions of Reddy's standing relative to other candidates in the field.

### Key factors

- Reddy's current polling position relative to other major candidates, particularly against Wilson and Evette who show higher market probabilities
- Campaign funding and organizational capacity to reach voters across South Carolina's primary electorate
- Endorsements from state party leaders, elected officials, or interest groups that could consolidate support
- Voter turnout patterns and demographic participation in the primary election itself
- Changes in field dynamics if other candidates withdraw or consolidate support before the primary vote

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrgovadvance
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scrgovadvance
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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