# Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary

> Russell Fry leads at 60%, runner-up 18% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrsens
Updated: 2026-07-14T02:20:50.254Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Russell Fry at 60%
- Runner-up: Ralph Norman at 18%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $124K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Fry | 60¢ | +5pp | $35K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-rfry |
| Ralph Norman | 18¢ | — | $16K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-rnor |
| Pamela Evette | 8¢ | −8pp | $20K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-peve |
| Henry McMaster | 6¢ | — | $11K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-hmcm |
| Darline Graham Nordone | 5¢ | — | $31K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-dnor |
| Mark Lynch | 3¢ | ±0 | $10K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-south-carolina-republican-se-kalshi-kxscrsens-26-mlyn |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Russell Fry | Ralph Norman | Pamela Evette |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | 13 | — | 51 |
| 2026-07-13 | 18 | 11 | 43 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-13 · Pamela Evette −8pp 51→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-13 · Russell Fry +5pp 13→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Pamela Evette is currently priced as the frontrunner in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary, with market participants assigning her a 46% probability of winning. This reflects traders' current assessment of her relative strength against other GOP candidates including Mark Lynch (7%), Russell Fry (15%), Ralph Norman (12%), and Nancy Mace (3%). The primary outcome will be determined when South Carolina Republicans vote, with the winner facing the Democratic nominee in the general election. Key drivers of Evette's current position include her political profile and name recognition, though the substantial gap between her 46% price and the runner-up at 18% suggests meaningful uncertainty about final primary performance. The election date and campaign developments over coming months will test whether Evette maintains her current market advantage or whether consolidation around alternative candidates reshapes the race.

### Key factors

- Pamela Evette holds 46% implied probability versus 54% for all other candidates combined, indicating a competitive field despite her current market leadership
- Mark Lynch at 7% and Russell Fry at 15% represent the nearest alternatives, with their combined share suggesting the non-Evette vote is fragmented across multiple candidates
- Nancy Mace's 3% price despite statewide profile indicates low market confidence in her primary viability in this particular race
- Twenty-four-hour trading volume concentration in Evette and Lynch contracts ($10,772 and $11,926 respectively) shows active disagreement on the frontrunner among traders
- The special primary timing and field composition remain subject to candidate entry/exit decisions and endorsement announcements that could rapidly shift relative positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrsens
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scrsens
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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