# Will the exact finishing order be in the first round of the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary

> Graham, Norman, Fry leads at 34%, runner-up 24% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrsens1rexact
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:52.855Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-08-11

## Headline

- Leader: Graham, Norman, Fry at 34%
- Runner-up: Graham, Fry, Norman at 24%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham, Norman, Fry | 34¢ | +5pp | $329 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-gra-nor-fry |
| Graham, Fry, Norman | 24¢ | +1pp | $146 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-gra-fry-nor |
| Norman, Graham, Fry | 11¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-nor-gra-fry |
| Norman, Fry, Graham | 10¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-nor-fry-gra |
| Fry, Graham, Norman | 7¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-fry-gra-nor |
| Fry, Norman, Graham | 7¢ | −2pp | $594 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-exact-finishing-order-be-in-the-first-rou-kalshi-kxscrsens1rexact-26aug11-fry-nor-gra |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Graham, Norman, Fry | Graham, Fry, Norman | Norman, Graham, Fry |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02 | 50 | 28 | 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | 48 | 26 | 9 |
| 2026-08-07 | 28 | 20 | 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | 26 | 21 | 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | 31 | — | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Graham, Norman, Fry −20pp 48→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Graham, Fry, Norman −6pp 26→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-07 · Norman, Fry, Graham +5pp 7→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-09 · Graham, Norman, Fry +5pp 26→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Norman, Graham, Fry +4pp 4→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market belief that Graham, Norman, and Fry will finish in that exact order in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary first round. The market currently assigns 50% confidence to this specific ordering, with the alternative three-candidate arrangement (Graham, Fry, Norman) second at 28%. The primary result depends on candidate performance relative to voter expectations—recent polling, campaign spending patterns, and endorsement momentum would shift these odds. The first-round outcome will be determined when voting occurs, likely in the coming months, and represents one of four possible top-three finishing orders that markets have priced.

### Key factors

- Graham's status as incumbent likely anchors him as first, making the ordering primarily dependent on whether Norman or Fry finishes second
- Current trading volume concentrates on Graham-Fry-Norman (28¢) and Graham-Norman-Fry (51¢), suggesting market uncertainty centers on the relative standing of these two challengers
- Limited volume on extreme outcomes (Fry-Norman-Graham at 3¢) indicates low perceived probability of Graham finishing outside top position
- The 50% price for the leader reflects near-parity with all alternative outcomes combined, suggesting genuine uncertainty rather than dominant consensus
- Publicly available polling data from South Carolina Republican voters would be the primary external signal moving these probabilities before the election date

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/scrsens1rexact
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=scrsens1rexact
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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