# SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 4 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdal-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-04T01:20:12.748Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikki Gronli | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sd-al-democratic-primary-winner-nikki-gronli-polymarket-0x2470f7af40585b7537ffb9ea92469f4f6e4c561ef5644402841b57e986a90afe |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | 97 |
| 2026-05-25 | 98 |
| 2026-06-01 | 99 |
| 2026-06-03 | 100 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The SD-AL Democratic Primary Winner market prices the leader at 96%, reflecting very high confidence in one candidate's nomination prospects. This probability aggregates sentiment across two linked contracts on Polymarket, though trading volume remains relatively modest at $816 over 24 hours. The current price suggests the frontrunner has substantial structural advantages—likely including name recognition, fundraising capacity, endorsements, or clear organizational support—that would need to shift materially to change the outcome. Key variables that could move this probability include unexpected candidate withdrawals, significant endorsement changes, polling data shifts, or late-breaking campaign developments. The primary election date will ultimately resolve this market, determining whether the pricing accurately reflected on-the-ground dynamics.

### Key factors

- Current 96% price implies roughly 1-in-25 odds for all other candidates combined, indicating market consensus around a dominant frontrunner rather than a competitive field
- Polymarket volume of $816 in 24 hours suggests limited real-money conviction relative to other 2026 primary races—lower liquidity may inflate extreme probabilities
- Two bound contracts structure means the 96% leader and 17% runner-up do not sum to 100%, indicating either pricing inefficiency or untraded outcome possibilities
- Top comparison races show wide probability dispersion (16¢ to 80¢), suggesting 2026 Democratic primaries range from contested to heavily predetermined based on current market assessment
- Resolution depends entirely on official primary results; no intermediate polling or organizational data will settle the market before the election date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdal-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sdal-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.