# Will South Dakota's corn for grain yield per harvested acre for 2026 be above 165 bu/acre

> Above 145 bu/acre leads at 73%, runner-up 50% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdcornyield
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:52.054Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Above 145 bu/acre at 73%
- Runner-up: Above 150 bu/acre at 50%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 145 bu/acre | 73¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t145 |
| Above 150 bu/acre | 50¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t150 |
| Above 155 bu/acre | 30¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t155 |
| Above 160 bu/acre | 16¢ | +3pp | $150 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t160 |
| Above 170 bu/acre | 6¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t170 |
| Above 165 bu/acre | 6¢ | −4pp | $304 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t165 |
| Above 180 bu/acre | 3¢ | −2pp | $402 | kalshi | /markets/will-south-dakotas-corn-for-grain-yield-per-harves-kalshi-kxsdcornyield-27jan31-t180 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 145 bu/acre | Above 150 bu/acre | Above 155 bu/acre |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | 88 | 73 | 24 |
| 2026-08-21 | 89 | 71 | 26 |
| 2026-08-22 | 91 | 9 | — |
| 2026-08-23 | 71 | 18 | 29 |
| 2026-08-24 | 70 | 34 | — |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-22 · Above 150 bu/acre −62pp 71→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 145 bu/acre −20pp 91→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 150 bu/acre +16pp 18→34¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-23 · Above 150 bu/acre +9pp 9→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 170 bu/acre −8pp 12→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 21% chance that South Dakota's 2026 corn yield will exceed 165 bushels per acre, reflecting skepticism about achieving above-average yields. This outcome depends primarily on growing conditions during the critical summer months and whether the state avoids significant weather disruptions. South Dakota's five-year average yield stands around 160 bu/acre, so 165 bu/acre represents a modest step above trend. The main downside risks include drought, excessive rainfall, or pest pressure during July–August, while favorable conditions and effective crop management could push yields higher. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its final yield estimate in early December 2026, which will definitively settle this outcome. Until then, sentiment reflects widespread caution about yield prospects relative to historical performance.

### Key factors

- South Dakota's historical five-year corn yield average is approximately 160 bu/acre; exceeding 165 bu/acre represents a 3% gain above recent trend
- Summer 2026 precipitation and temperature patterns during July–August pollination and grain-fill stages are the primary drivers of final yield; drought or heat stress significantly reduces probability of meeting 165 bu/acre threshold
- The market prices much higher thresholds (170+ bu/acre) at only 11% or lower, indicating low confidence in exceptional yields; only 5–7% probability for 175+ bu/acre outcomes
- USDA will publish official yield data in early December 2026, at which point prediction markets will resolve based on South Dakota's reported corn for grain yield per harvested acre
- Current low volume and pricing suggest limited market participation, which may underweight emerging weather forecasts or late-season crop condition reports

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdcornyield
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sdcornyield

## License

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