# Will the margin of victory for Larry Rhoden in the 2026 South Dakota Republican gubernatorial runoff be between 6% and 9%

> Larry Rhoden, ≥12% leads at 19%, runner-up 12% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdrgovrunoffmov
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.141Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-28

## Headline

- Leader: Larry Rhoden, ≥12% at 19%
- Runner-up: Toby Doeden, ≥12% at 12%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $429

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Rhoden, ≥12% | 19¢ | +1pp | $390 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-larry-rhoden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-lrho-p56 |
| Toby Doeden, ≥12% | 12¢ | −1pp | $38 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-toby-doeden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-tdoe-p56 |
| Toby Doeden, 0-3% | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-toby-doeden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-tdoe-p1 |
| Larry Rhoden, 0-3% | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-larry-rhoden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-lrho-p1 |
| Toby Doeden, 3-6% | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-toby-doeden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-tdoe-p4 |
| Larry Rhoden, 6-9% | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-larry-rhoden-in-the-kalshi-kxsdrgovrunoffmov-govsdnomr26r-lrho-p7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Larry Rhoden, ≥12% | Toby Doeden, ≥12% | Toby Doeden, 0-3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 13 | 13 | 11 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | 21 | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 16 | 14 | 11 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-21 | 17 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 21 | 13 | 11 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 12 | 11 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether Larry Rhoden will win South Dakota's 2026 Republican gubernatorial runoff by a margin between 6% and 9%. The 20% probability reflects markets pricing this outcome as unlikely relative to other margin scenarios. The current pricing structure suggests that traders see either a larger victory margin (≥12%) or a much closer race (0-3%) as more probable outcomes for Rhoden, with Toby Doeden's larger victory margins also receiving elevated pricing. The key uncertainty centers on whether Rhoden maintains his position or Doeden gains ground heading into the runoff vote. Polling data released closer to the election date will be the primary driver of probability shifts, as it would either confirm the expected margin range or signal movement toward the tighter or wider outcomes currently favored by markets.

### Key factors

- Larry Rhoden trades at 3¢ (3% implied) for the 6-9% margin band, the lowest-priced outcome among contracts, suggesting markets view this specific range as relatively unlikely
- Toby Doeden's ≥12% outcome prices at 20¢, tied with the headline probability and indicating substantial market conviction toward a decisive Doeden victory
- The 0-3% margin contracts for both candidates (10¢ for Doeden, 9¢ for Rhoden) suggest markets assign meaningful probability to a very tight race, competing with the larger-margin scenarios
- Recent polling or endorsement shifts would directly alter expectations about final margin ranges and reweight the probability distribution across all outcome buckets
- No recent 24-hour trading volume on several contracts indicates thin liquidity in this specific market, potentially reflecting limited trader interest or uncertainty about the runoff occurring

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sdrgovrunoffmov
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sdrgovrunoffmov
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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