# SE Palmeiras vs. Santos FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 19 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/se-palmeiras-vs-santos-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:09.287Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 33% / Polymarket 33% — 0pp spread
- 24h volume: $434

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 | 39¢ | −21pp | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-robelis-despaigne-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-des1 |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 26¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-other |
| CS Cristal | 18¢ | −1pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xcc6e978759b03f8cc18b374fd767dcfaa61e66cbcedf054d21b00cb7080e748e |
| SE Palmeiras | 56¢ | +1pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-se-palmeiras-polymarket-0x8920182cecfb34ea2d774a1aa2a5b52201378321e5d6e07d0b177e71b6c77576 |
| Santos FC (-2.5) | 10¢ | +11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-santos-fc-25-polymarket-0x8b7d1b3045495db64db1602f2a2dc2e9b1a14134ffd5ca46df6da70ef0b6e535 |
| CS Cristal (-1.5) | 8¢ | +8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-cs-cristal-polymarket-0xfaa9e3aad297692328fb6209ca47781ac3957e835eda579a113bd8745f22cc5a |
| Recoleta FC | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0xb7af628dcc187e25e4d86cc151df22fca91bb83bb551041d41d2a91a9cc555d6 |
| Santos FC | 57¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-santos-fc-polymarket-0x16aabcce3599427c186ee513559e5fe69c7f01567333eebbd71d848237cf08ee |
| Draw (CS Cristal vs. SE Palmeiras) | 26¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-draw-cs-cristal-vs-se-p-polymarket-0xe78ed7de253fc04d22e4e763d58f11e13eeda2ae90a270ed9d2bd93f45b6e659 |
| Santos FC (-1.5) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-santos-fc-15-polymarket-0x977bf5ecd7328decd940d046ef71f9cad59afae32ac394055cd14a9ca47b7607 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x7b3618cc383dee32b5928783e21910b64d9ee9e8871dccdbe77b4683d145b693 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xddd281fea164268b7a430b9b264ba88f9c5927b2e82311c6c8d976912a063d6c |
| Both Teams to Score | 49¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-both-teams-polymarket-0x8b5451274c64477bcff83d70ee4344ff92dc476aa0d1b1ee30f39bdade2aa1df |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0x2e35d2a371eb9f57720f882c8f2ba05eb12bdebe3d1709e3e5e6d4ec33b7f460 |
| O/U 2.5 | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x5f871d298ceb410af90dc99daccb2e3a30265f80cbc766a9eb5dfed54ba9f819 |
| Recoleta FC (-1.5) | 7¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0x227b414cce0aac66306799ab8092facfc2457b07009b983aaf774d0509b62799 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x649f758c6dde622a7bf75befacc1a7c2f70d0afef0894db50623c07f953fc7d8 |
| Recoleta FC (-2.5) | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/recoleta-fc-vs-santos-fc-more-markets-recoleta-fc-polymarket-0x59c79791557e4efa66098d63bddd4a633dfe0673d3ba2cf096c50f2470806901 |
| SE Palmeiras (-1.5) | 30¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/cs-cristal-vs-se-palmeiras-more-markets-se-palmeir-polymarket-0x32804cd439c1bfca4c202fce84583e79a3c404f6c6991c23b68fdb2698372971 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 31 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 −21pp 42→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Santos FC (-2.5) +11pp 12→23¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · CS Cristal (-1.5) +8pp 11→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Recoleta FC (-1.5) +7pp 6→13¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Recoleta FC (-2.5) +4pp 9→13¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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## License

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