# Will Sea Ltd report above 60 million garena quarterly paying users in Q2 2026

> Above 62 million leads at 97%, runner-up 94% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/se
Updated: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.357Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-10

## Headline

- Leader: Above 62 million at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 60 million at 94%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 62 million | 97¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-62-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p62000000 |
| Above 60 million | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-60-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p60000000 |
| Above 64 million | 94¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-64-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p64000000 |
| Above 66 million | 85¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-66-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p66000000 |
| Above 68 million | 81¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-68-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p68000000 |
| Above 69 million | 69¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-69-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-69000000 |
| Above 70 million | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-70-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p70000000 |
| Above 72 million | 20¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-72-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p72000000 |
| Above 74 million | 12¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sea-ltd-report-above-74-million-garena-quarte-kalshi-kxse-26augqpu-p74000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 62 million | Above 60 million | Above 64 million |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 96 | — | — |
| 2026-06-02 | 97 | — | 93 |
| 2026-06-05 | 97 | 97 | 94 |
| 2026-06-11 | 96 | 93 | 93 |
| 2026-06-14 | 97 | — | 94 |
| 2026-06-20 | 96 | — | 93 |
| 2026-06-21 | — | 94 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 96 | 94 | 93 |
| 2026-06-27 | 97 | — | 94 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Above 68 million −3pp 84→81¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 72 million −3pp 23→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 74 million −3pp 16→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market is assessing whether Sea Ltd's Garena platform will report above 62 million quarterly paying users in Q2 2026, with an estimated 96% likelihood. The high probability reflects market confidence in Garena's user base trajectory based on historical growth patterns and recent performance data. The main drivers are Garena's track record of consistent user growth across its gaming portfolio and regional market expansion, weighed against potential headwinds like competitive pressure from other platforms and macroeconomic factors affecting user spending. Resolution depends on Sea Ltd's official Q2 2026 earnings report, expected in August 2026, which will disclose the exact paying user count. The probability structure across multiple thresholds (60M, 62M, 64M, 66M, 69M) suggests market participants see a high floor around 62M but decreasing confidence at higher tiers, reflecting uncertainty about the magnitude of growth beyond base expectations.

### Key factors

- Sea Ltd's historical quarterly paying user growth rate and trend trajectory from prior periods
- Competitive dynamics in mobile gaming and live-streaming across Southeast Asia and emerging markets where Garena operates
- The earnings release date and exact paying user count disclosure in Sea Ltd's Q2 2026 financial statements
- Macroeconomic conditions affecting consumer spending on gaming and virtual goods in key regions during Q1-Q2 2026
- The gap between the 62M (96%) and 69M (70%) thresholds indicates significant uncertainty about whether growth accelerates beyond historical norms

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/se
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=se

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.