# Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefing

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/secpressmention
Updated: 2026-06-06T04:20:12.476Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2029-01-21

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $126

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No new person | 15¢ | +6pp | $126 | kalshi | /markets/will-no-new-person-be-the-next-white-house-press-s-kalshi-kxnextpressec-29jan21-nnp |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 27 |
| 2026-05-25 | 30 |
| 2026-06-01 | 25 |
| 2026-06-07 | 28 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · No new person −10pp 25→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · No new person +6pp 16→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-07 · No new person +6pp 22→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · No new person −3pp 28→25¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will use the phrase 'Radical Left' during her next scheduled press briefing. The 29% probability suggests traders view this as unlikely but not implausible. The baseline rate depends on how frequently Leavitt uses this specific phrase at briefings—a function of both her typical communication style and the news cycle. Resolution hinges on whether a briefing occurs soon and what topics dominate discussion; economic or foreign policy crises might reduce rhetorical focus on partisan framing, while domestic political disputes could increase it. The related markets show significant uncertainty around briefing frequency in May and potential staff changes. The single biggest catalyst is the scheduling and occurrence of the next televised briefing, where the resolution will be determined by direct observation of her remarks.

### Key factors

- Karoline Leavitt's documented frequency of using 'Radical Left' or similar phrases in previous public statements and briefings
- Whether a White House press briefing is scheduled and conducted within the relevant timeframe
- Current news cycle priorities—foreign policy, economic data, or domestic political conflict would differentially affect topic selection
- The specificity of phrase matching—whether 'Radical Left' must appear verbatim or functionally equivalent language counts
- Cross-venue disagreement (32% Kalshi vs. 28% Polymarket) suggests different trader bases weight the phrase's likelihood differently

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/secpressmention
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=secpressmention
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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