# Will the Secretary of State visit Poland before 2027

> Mexico leads at 48%, runner-up 45% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/secstatevisit
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.619Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Mexico at 48%
- Runner-up: Qatar at 45%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $53

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-mexico-before-20-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-mex |
| Qatar | 45¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-qatar-before-202-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-qat |
| Switzerland | 45¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-switzerland-befo-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-swi |
| Poland | 29¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-poland-before-20-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-pol |
| Cuba | 26¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-cuba-before-2027-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-cub |
| Ukraine | 25¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-ukraine-before-2-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-ukr |
| Oman | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-oman-before-2027-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-oma |
| Venezuela | 14¢ | +2pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-venezuela-before-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-ven |
| Russia | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-secretary-of-state-visit-russia-before-20-kalshi-kxsecstatevisit-27-rus |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mexico | Qatar | Switzerland |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | — | — | 49 |
| 2026-05-30 | 53 | 47 | 47 |
| 2026-06-02 | — | 45 | 47 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 44 | — |
| 2026-06-11 | 50 | 45 | 45 |
| 2026-06-19 | 50 | — | 39 |
| 2026-06-23 | 48 | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | — | — | 42 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Cuba −7pp 39→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Cuba −3pp 32→29¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Switzerland +3pp 39→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the U.S. Secretary of State will visit Poland at some point before 2027. The 67% probability is the highest among several potential international visits being tracked, suggesting traders view a Poland visit as more likely than trips to China (the current leader in this contract set), Cuba, or other destinations. The probability is likely influenced by Poland's strategic importance to U.S. foreign policy, ongoing regional geopolitical dynamics, and the typical diplomatic schedule of State Department leadership. Shifts in this probability would depend on scheduled state visits, diplomatic incidents, or changes in U.S. priorities toward Central Europe. The resolution will depend on official State Department travel records and whether any visit occurs before January 1, 2027.

### Key factors

- Poland's status as a NATO ally and key partner in European security strategy affects likelihood of diplomatic visits
- The typical frequency and geographic distribution of Secretary of State visits across comparable allied nations
- Any major geopolitical events or diplomatic initiatives in Central Europe that might accelerate or delay official visits
- The current Secretary of State's established travel schedule and known diplomatic priorities through 2026
- Contractual terms and definition of what constitutes an official "visit" according to VISITAREA rules

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/secstatevisit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=secstatevisit

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.