# Sejong Mayoral Election Winner

> Cho Sangho leads at 97%, runner-up 3% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sejong-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-29T23:20:12.560Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: Cho Sangho at 97%
- Runner-up: Choi Min-ho at 3%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $412

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cho Sangho | 97¢ | +1pp | $1 | polymarket | /markets/sejong-mayoral-election-winner-cho-sangho-polymarket-0x54269af2f091168ec5e921148340ecb77af195eb06c9ca816da1ca02f3169aa1 |
| Choi Min-ho | 3¢ | ±0 | $411 | polymarket | /markets/sejong-mayoral-election-winner-choi-min-ho-polymarket-0xad9109cde8e43a448f04cbf7d7366724c2dc94a20959715471666276f8bf1703 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Cho Sangho | Choi Min-ho |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | — | 5 |
| 2026-05-20 | 95 | 6 |
| 2026-05-22 | 93 | 10 |
| 2026-05-28 | 97 | 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | — | 4 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The market is pricing in a 93% probability that Cho Sangho will win the Sejong mayoral election, reflecting strong confidence in his candidacy relative to the leading alternative, Choi Min-ho. This probability could shift based on campaign developments, public polling releases, or voter sentiment changes in the coming months before the election. The main factors supporting Cho's position appear to be either name recognition, prior electoral performance, endorsements, or demonstrated organizational strength, while downside risks would materialize if a major scandal emerged, polling trends reversed significantly, or a strong third-party challenger gained traction. The election date and any scheduled debates or official voting events will likely serve as key resolution points that could shift market confidence. Current trading volume is minimal, suggesting limited recent position changes and potentially wide bid-ask spreads that may not reflect deep institutional conviction.

### Key factors

- Cho Sangho maintains a 93-to-10 probability ratio over the runner-up, indicating market consensus rather than genuine uncertainty between two viable candidates
- Trading volume on both contracts is extremely low (combined ~$8 in 24h), suggesting thin liquidity and potentially uninformed or stale pricing
- The 10% assigned to Choi Min-ho represents non-trivial residual probability, indicating markets acknowledge a realistic upset path
- No public polling data, scandal reports, or recent campaign events are reflected in the current summary, limiting ability to assess whether pricing reflects current ground conditions
- A scheduled election date or pre-election event (debates, primary results, or major endorsements) would serve as the primary catalyst for price adjustment

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/sejong-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=sejong-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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