# Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 19 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senate-pass-reconciliation-bill
Updated: 2026-06-07T07:20:11.816Z
Category: legislation · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 13 at 97%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 97%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 13 | 97¢ | +3pp | $963 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-june-polymarket-0x642ab0b311b1f4349a0d5a6bacd51256b9d61f1af08f763e55a72f30120343cd |
| June 30 | 97¢ | +5pp | $47 | polymarket | /markets/will-the-senate-pass-a-reconciliation-bill-by-june-polymarket-0x48f5b5378afc9765a20db2e83e5710cef2bb42d98917219955f839caf99d7d43 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 13 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | 49 | 70 |
| 2026-06-01 | 47 | 68 |
| 2026-06-06 | 100 | 98 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · June 13 +21pp 52→73¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · June 13 +18pp 73→91¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · June 30 +15pp 75→90¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · June 13 +6pp 91→97¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · June 13 +5pp 47→52¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill by June 30, 2026—giving roughly a 2 in 3 chance lawmakers will approve a major spending or tax measure through the fast-track process that requires only a simple majority. Reconciliation bills bypass the 60-vote filibuster threshold, making them a key tool for passing partisan legislation. The 69% probability suggests traders view passage as more likely than not, though still uncertain. Key drivers include current Senate composition, the status of budget negotiations, and whether party leadership has secured sufficient votes. The immediate catalyst is whether Democrats or Republicans can maintain internal unity on a bill framework, with June 30 marking the formal deadline for this specific resolution window.

### Key factors

- Budget resolution adoption status: A budget resolution must pass first to enable reconciliation instructions, which would need to occur early June to meet the June 30 deadline
- Senate floor schedule: Leadership must allocate limited floor time for debate and voting, competing against other legislative priorities in the final weeks of the session
- Coalition stability: Passage requires holding a simple majority (51 votes with current composition), meaning zero or near-zero defections depending on party control
- Substantive policy agreement: Senators must reach consensus on fiscal priorities (spending levels, tax provisions, etc.) before floor consideration becomes feasible
- External pressure events: Economic data, fiscal crises, or political developments between June 1-30 could shift urgency and willingness to spend floor time on reconciliation

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senate-pass-reconciliation-bill
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senate-pass-reconciliation-bill
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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