# Will Stevan Pearce be confirmed as BLM Director before May 1, 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 23% across 5 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senateconfirm
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.065Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-08

## Headline

- Probability: 23% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Matsumoto | 73¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brett-matsumoto-be-confirmed-as-commissioner-kalshi-kxsenateconfirm-26apr29-bmat |
| David MacNeil | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-david-macneil-be-confirmed-as-ftc-commissione-kalshi-kxsenateconfirm-26apr29-dmac |
| Walter "Jay" Clayton | 5¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-walter-jay-clayton-be-confirmed-as-us-attorne-kalshi-kxsenateconfirm-26apr29-jcla |
| Scott Bessent | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-bessent-be-confirmed-as-governor-of-the-kalshi-kxsenateconfirm-26apr29-sbes |
| Nicole Saphier | 27¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicole-saphier-be-confirmed-as-surgeon-genera-kalshi-kxsenateconfirm-26apr30-nsap |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 17 |
| 2026-06-12 | 8 |
| 2026-06-19 | 62 |
| 2026-06-26 | 16 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Brett Matsumoto +44pp 18→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Brett Matsumoto +15pp 62→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Scott Bessent −5pp 7→2¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Nicole Saphier −5pp 36→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · David MacNeil −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 43% chance that Stevan Pearce will be confirmed as BLM (Bureau of Land Management) Director before May 1, 2026. The relatively modest probability reflects the standard uncertainty around any Senate confirmation process. Key factors driving this level include the pace of committee hearings and floor votes in the Senate, as well as any potential opposition from members concerned about land management policy. The main catalyst resolving this question will be the Senate's actual confirmation vote on Pearce's nomination, which typically occurs weeks after committee approval. The timeline is tight given the May 1 deadline is imminent, suggesting the market may be pricing in delays in the confirmation schedule.

### Key factors

- Pearce's nomination has not yet reached a Senate floor vote as of early May 2026, indicating limited time remaining before the deadline
- Committee approval (if it has occurred) was likely recent, leaving compressed time for floor consideration and voting procedures
- No significant public opposition or holds have been reported that would delay or block the nomination
- The related contract for confirmation before August 8, 2026 trades at 97¢, indicating high confidence in eventual confirmation but later timing
- Senate scheduling and floor time availability in May will directly determine whether a vote can occur before the May 1 deadline

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senateconfirm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senateconfirm

## License

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