# Will Patty Murray win the next Senate Democratic Leader election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 5 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatedemlead
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.003Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2028-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $187

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Van Hollen | 4¢ | — | $187 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-van-hollen-win-the-next-senate-democrat-kalshi-kxsenatedemlead-28jan01-chol |
| Brian Schatz | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brian-schatz-win-the-next-senate-democratic-l-kalshi-kxsenatedemlead-28jan01-bsch |
| Chris Murphy | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-murphy-win-the-next-senate-democratic-l-kalshi-kxsenatedemlead-28jan01-cmur |
| Chuck Schumer | 51¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chuck-schumer-win-the-next-senate-democratic-kalshi-kxsenatedemlead-28jan01-cshu |
| Patty Murray | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patty-murray-win-the-next-senate-democratic-l-kalshi-kxsenatedemlead-28jan01-pmur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 31 |
| 2026-06-15 | 31 |
| 2026-06-18 | 54 |
| 2026-06-23 | 55 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the likelihood that Senator Patty Murray becomes the next Democratic Senate Minority or Majority Leader. At 16%, the market suggests she faces significant competition for the position. The current probability reflects Murray's tenure and seniority as factors working in her favor, while her age and potential competition from other senior Democrats weigh against her. Leadership contests typically emerge when the current leader steps down or loses an election; the timing and circumstances of such a transition would substantially shift expectations. The outcome will ultimately depend on decisions by Democratic senators during an internal election, which occurs only when the position becomes vacant. Key considerations include whether incumbent leadership seeks reelection, the emergence of alternative candidates from different geographic or ideological factions, and voting patterns within the caucus that may prioritize new leadership.

### Key factors

- Current Senate Democratic leadership structure and whether incumbent leader has announced retirement or reelection intentions
- Murray's seniority ranking and voting record relative to other potential candidates within the Democratic caucus
- Geographic and demographic representation preferences among Senate Democrats, particularly whether they seek regional diversity in leadership
- Public statements or positioning by other senior Democratic senators indicating leadership ambitions
- Timing of any leadership transition and whether it occurs in the near or distant future

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatedemlead
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatedemlead
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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