# Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Florida

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 91% across 1 contract — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatefld
Updated: 2026-07-14T08:20:50.382Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 91% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Vindman | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-alexander-vindman-be-the-democratic-nominee-f-kalshi-kxsenatefld-26-avin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 93 |
| 2026-06-22 | 94 |
| 2026-06-23 | 93 |
| 2026-07-03 | 91 |
| 2026-07-06 | 92 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Angie Nixon becomes the Democratic Party's official Senate nominee for Florida's 2026 election. At 33%, the market suggests she is considered a serious contender but faces stronger competition, particularly from Jared Moskowitz, whose contract trades significantly lower at 3 cents. The probability reflects uncertainty about which candidate will accumulate sufficient delegate support or win primary contests. Factors influencing this level include Nixon's name recognition within Democratic circles, her fundraising capacity compared to rivals, and endorsements from party leadership. The primary election date and any scheduled candidate debates or endorsement announcements would likely move this probability meaningfully. Contract volume remains modest across all three candidates, indicating limited trading activity and potential for significant repricing as the nomination process advances and more information emerges about candidate viability and voter preferences.

### Key factors

- Nixon's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other declared Democratic candidates
- Endorsements from Florida Democratic Party officials, unions, and national party figures
- Vote share in any early primary elections or straw polls held before the official nomination vote
- Moskowitz's contract pricing at 3 cents suggests market assigns him substantially higher nomination odds despite lower trading volume
- The date of the Florida Democratic primary election and formal nomination procedures that will determine which candidate receives the nomination

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatefld
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatefld
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.