# Will Buddy Carter be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Georgia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 48% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senategar
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.621Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 48% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Collins | 85¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-collins-be-the-republican-nominee-for-th-kalshi-kxsenategar-26-mcol |
| Derek Dooley | 10¢ | +3pp | $319 | kalshi | /markets/will-derek-dooley-be-the-republican-nominee-for-th-kalshi-kxsenategar-26-ddoo |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 45 |
| 2026-04-25 | 45 |
| 2026-05-02 | 44 |
| 2026-05-08 | 86 |

_28 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Mike Collins +4pp 84→88¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · Derek Dooley +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the likelihood that Buddy Carter, currently a U.S. Representative from Georgia, will win the Republican nomination for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat. At 33%, the market suggests meaningful uncertainty about his path to nomination. The probability reflects factors such as Carter's current position and name recognition against potential primary competition, fundraising capacity, and endorsements from established party figures. A key driver of this probability is the composition of the Republican primary field—whether other notable candidates enter or drop out. The primary election itself, scheduled for 2026, will be the critical event that resolves this market. Until then, changes in polling, endorsements from party leadership, and campaign financial disclosures could significantly shift expectations about Carter's viability as a nominee.

### Key factors

- Buddy Carter's current standing in Republican primary polling relative to other potential candidates for Georgia's Senate seat
- The timing and participation decisions of other notable Republican figures in Georgia considering Senate runs
- Carter's fundraising totals and donor base compared to competing candidates
- Endorsements from Georgia Republican leadership, including figures like Governor Brian Kemp or outgoing/current U.S. Senators
- Early primary election results or proxy contests that signal candidate viability in Georgia's Republican electorate

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senategar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senategar
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.