# Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kansas

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 39% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senateksd
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.025Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 39% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Schmidt | 4¢ | — | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-schmidt-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenateksd-26-psch |
| Adam Hamilton | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adam-hamilton-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenateksd-26-aham |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 78 |
| 2026-06-12 | 80 |
| 2026-06-19 | 77 |
| 2026-06-24 | 73 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Adam Hamilton −3pp 77→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Patrick Schmidt wins the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kansas. At 6%, markets currently view Schmidt as an unlikely nominee choice relative to other potential Democratic candidates. The low probability reflects Kansas's strong Republican lean—the state has voted Republican in recent presidential elections and holds a Republican Senate seat—which typically makes Democratic nominations less competitive at the statewide level. Key factors affecting this probability include Schmidt's current political standing and name recognition in Kansas, the strength of competing Democratic candidates for the nomination, and whether any major shifts in the state's political dynamics occur. The 2026 Senate election timeline will be the critical catalyst for resolution, with the primary election serving as the definitive test of whether Schmidt can secure the Democratic nomination.

### Key factors

- Kansas's Republican lean in recent election cycles, making any Democratic statewide nominee a long-shot in the general election
- The competitiveness of the Democratic primary race and whether other candidates with higher name recognition or establishment support enter the race
- Schmidt's baseline political experience, fundraising capacity, and organizational strength relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- Timing of the Democratic primary election and any endorsements or institutional support that could shift momentum
- Recent voting trends in Kansas Democratic primaries and whether turnout or demographic shifts create new opportunities

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senateksd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senateksd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.