# Will Pamela Stevenson be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Kentucky

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 50% across 2 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatekyd
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.348Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 50% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $774

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Booker | 90¢ | +1pp | $596 | kalshi | /markets/will-charles-booker-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatekyd-26-cboo |
| Amy McGrath | 10¢ | −1pp | $178 | kalshi | /markets/will-amy-mcgrath-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatekyd-26-amcg |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 47 |
| 2026-04-25 | 48 |
| 2026-05-02 | 85 |
| 2026-05-08 | 86 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability indicates an even-odds assessment that Pamela Stevenson will secure the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in Kentucky. The 49% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about the nomination race, likely driven by questions about candidate viability, fundraising capacity, and support within Kentucky's Democratic establishment. The outcome depends partly on whether Stevenson can build name recognition and organizational strength against other potential nominees, and partly on which candidates actually choose to enter the race. The primary election itself—scheduled for May 2026—will be the decisive event that resolves this uncertainty. Until voting occurs, the nomination remains genuinely competitive, with Stevenson holding neither a commanding position nor a marginal one.

### Key factors

- Candidate field composition: Whether other significant Democratic candidates enter or remain out of the Kentucky Senate race substantially affects Stevenson's nomination odds
- Fundraising trajectory: Comparative fundraising between Stevenson and competing candidates through Q2 2026 provides concrete evidence of organizational strength and donor confidence
- Statewide polling data: Democratic primary polling in Kentucky, if available, would show Stevenson's relative standing and momentum among likely primary voters
- Endorsements from party leadership: Support from established Kentucky Democratic figures and national party officials influences primary outcomes measurably
- Primary election date: The May 2026 primary election directly resolves this question and will show actual voting behavior across Kentucky Democratic voters

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatekyd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatekyd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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