# Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemid
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:49.930Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdul El-Sayed | 82¢ | ±0 | $30K | kalshi | /markets/will-abdul-el-sayed-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatemid-26-aels |
| Haley Stevens | 16¢ | ±0 | $20K | kalshi | /markets/will-haley-stevens-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatemid-26-hste |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 37 |
| 2026-06-12 | 70 |
| 2026-06-19 | 73 |
| 2026-06-26 | 49 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Abdul El-Sayed +5pp 77→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Haley Stevens −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Abdul El-Sayed +4pp 73→77¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Haley Stevens −4pp 20→16¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates a 33% chance that Abdul El-Sayed becomes the Democratic nominee for Michigan's U.S. Senate seat. The market reflects uncertainty about his viability as a candidate, likely influenced by his performance in previous statewide races, name recognition relative to potential competitors, and the Democratic Party's broader strategic priorities in this competitive seat. Key factors affecting this probability include whether other strong candidates enter the race, El-Sayed's ability to fundraise and build organizational support, and how Michigan voters respond to his policy platform in polling. The most significant resolution point would be the official filing deadline for the Senate race and any major primary polling data showing candidate preferences among Democratic voters. As the election cycle develops, actual campaign momentum and endorsements from party leaders will provide clearer signals about his nomination prospects.

### Key factors

- El-Sayed's track record in previous statewide races and whether he has expanded his political base since last running
- The number and strength of alternative Democratic candidates who declare candidacy for the Michigan Senate nomination
- Fundraising totals and organizational capacity El-Sayed demonstrates compared to competing candidates
- Current and projected primary polling among Michigan Democratic voters explicitly testing Senate nominee preferences
- Endorsements from major Michigan Democratic figures, party officials, and national organizations as the primary approaches

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemid
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatemid
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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