# Will Royce White be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Minnesota

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 49% across 2 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemnr
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:50.687Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 49% (liquidity-weighted across 2 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $791

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michele Tafoya | 90¢ | −3pp | $791 | kalshi | /markets/will-michele-tafoya-be-the-republican-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatemnr-26-mtaf |
| Mark York | 7¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-mark-york-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-s-kalshi-kxsenatemnr-26-myor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 84 |
| 2026-06-11 | 88 |
| 2026-06-19 | 90 |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Michele Tafoya +3pp 90→93¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Michele Tafoya −3pp 93→90¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Royce White will win the Republican primary for Minnesota's U.S. Senate seat. At 48%, the market indicates near-parity between White becoming the nominee and an alternative candidate emerging. The primary dynamic centers on White's name recognition and existing political profile against potential challengers and party establishment preferences. Key drivers of movement would include polling data from Minnesota Republicans, candidate entry/exit decisions, endorsements from state party leadership, and fundraising performance. The resolution hinges on Minnesota's Republican primary election results, which will occur during the 2026 election cycle. Until the primary date arrives, market participants will adjust probabilities based on campaign announcements, debate performance, and emerging polling that clarifies voter sentiment among Minnesota Republicans.

### Key factors

- Royce White's current public visibility and prior candidacy history in Minnesota politics
- Number and profile of alternative Republican candidates choosing to enter the Minnesota Senate primary race
- Endorsements and resource allocation decisions by Minnesota Republican Party leadership and national GOP figures
- Polling of Minnesota Republican primary voters showing head-to-head matchup preferences among declared candidates
- Fundraising totals and donor support relative to competing candidates through FEC disclosure periods

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemnr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatemnr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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