# Will Kurt Alme be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Montana

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemtr
Updated: 2026-06-02T19:20:12.816Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-06-02

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Alme | 97¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kurt-alme-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-s-kalshi-kxsenatemtr-26-kalm |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 95 |
| 2026-05-27 | 98 |
| 2026-05-30 | 99 |

_9 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Kurt Alme will secure the Republican nomination for Montana's U.S. Senate seat. The 85% level suggests he is the frontrunner among Republican candidates in the race. Key factors supporting this probability include his current positioning within the Montana Republican Party and name recognition in the state. The probability could shift based on candidate entry or exit decisions, shifts in endorsements from major state figures, or changes in perceived electability against Democratic opponents. The Montana Republican primary election, typically held in June during election years, represents the key event that will resolve this uncertainty. Primary voting behavior will ultimately determine whether Alme secures the nomination or if a challenger gains momentum to overtake him.

### Key factors

- Kurt Alme's standing in recent Montana Republican polling or endorsement counts among state party officials and significant donors
- Whether competing Republican candidates enter or remain in the Senate race, and their relative fundraising and organizational strength
- Shifts in national or state political dynamics that could affect the Republican primary electorate's candidate preferences
- Montana primary election date and voter turnout patterns that could influence nomination outcome
- Any significant developments regarding Alme's campaign operations, messaging, or public support levels

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatemtr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatemtr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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