# Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in New Hampshire

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 22% across 5 contracts — refreshed 22 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatenhd
Updated: 2026-06-26T06:20:50.331Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 22% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $13

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karishma Manzur | 7¢ | ±0 | $13 | kalshi | /markets/will-karishma-manzur-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatenhd-26-kman |
| Annie Kuster | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-annie-kuster-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-th-kalshi-kxsenatenhd-26-akus |
| Chris Pappas | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-pappas-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-th-kalshi-kxsenatenhd-26-cpap |
| Maggie Goodlander | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-maggie-goodlander-be-the-democratic-nominee-f-kalshi-kxsenatenhd-26-mgoo |
| Stefany Shaheen | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stefany-shaheen-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatenhd-26-ssha |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 46 |
| 2026-06-12 | 3 |
| 2026-06-20 | 6 |
| 2026-06-25 | 49 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Karishma Manzur +4pp 2→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Karishma Manzur +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Karishma Manzur −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Karishma Manzur will secure the Democratic Party's Senate nomination in New Hampshire's 2026 general election. At 22%, this suggests market participants view her as a credible but not favored candidate in the state's Democratic primary. The probability is primarily driven by assessments of her name recognition, organizational support, and fundraising capacity relative to other potential Democratic candidates in New Hampshire. The key catalyst that will resolve much of this uncertainty is the official filing deadline for primary candidates and early primary performance, which will clarify voter preference and establishment backing. Changes to this probability would likely follow major endorsement announcements, significant fundraising reports, or shifts in perceived candidate viability based on polling data closer to the primary election.

### Key factors

- Manzur's campaign infrastructure and fundraising totals relative to competing Democratic primary candidates in New Hampshire
- Public endorsements from state Democratic officials, labor unions, and other influential party organizations
- Polling data showing her name recognition and support levels among New Hampshire Democratic primary voters
- Entry or withdrawal of other significant Democratic candidates that would directly affect the competitive field
- Media coverage and earned attention indicating momentum or decline in her candidacy ahead of the primary vote

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatenhd
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatenhd
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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