# Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatenjr
Updated: 2026-06-03T05:20:12.854Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 95% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $31K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Murphy | 95¢ | — | $31K | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-murphy-be-the-republican-nominee-for-s-kalshi-kxsenatenjr-26-jmur |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | 69 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current likelihood that Justin Murphy will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 2026. At 37%, the market suggests Murphy is a meaningful contender but faces significant competition for the nomination. The current level reflects Murphy's existing political profile, fundraising capacity, and endorsement positioning relative to other potential Republican candidates in the state. The probability would shift based on changes in candidate entry or withdrawal from the race, fundraising disparities among competitors, and endorsements from influential state or national Republican figures. The primary election itself represents the key catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty—when New Jersey Republicans formally select their nominee, the probability will move to either near 100% if Murphy wins or near 0% if he does not. Until that event, the market is pricing in a moderately competitive nomination contest with multiple viable candidates.

### Key factors

- Murphy's current fundraising totals compared to other declared or potential Republican candidates in the race
- Whether major New Jersey Republican Party figures and national endorsers have committed to or publicly supported Murphy
- The timing and identities of other candidates entering or exiting the Republican primary before filing deadlines
- Public polling data among likely Republican primary voters showing Murphy's name recognition and preference levels
- Changes in the overall strength of the national Republican brand that could affect primary turnout and candidate viability in New Jersey

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatenjr
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatenjr
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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