# Will Conor Lamb be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Pennsylvania

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 13% across 6 contracts — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatepad
Updated: 2026-07-14T04:20:49.680Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 13% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Boyle | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brendan-boyle-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-bboy |
| Chris Deluzio | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-chris-deluzio-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-cdel |
| Conor Lamb | 12¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-conor-lamb-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-clam |
| John Fetterman | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-fetterman-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-jfet |
| Summer Lee | 34¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-summer-lee-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-slee |
| Susan Wild | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-susan-wild-be-the-democratic-nominee-for-the-kalshi-kxsenatepad-28-swil |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | 19 |
| 2026-07-02 | 31 |
| 2026-07-06 | 9 |
| 2026-07-09 | 23 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Conor Lamb will win the Democratic primary for Pennsylvania's 2026 Senate seat. At 15%, markets view him as a secondary contender rather than the frontrunner. The assessment likely reflects the competitive nature of Pennsylvania Democratic primaries, where multiple candidates typically emerge with substantial support. Key factors pushing this probability would include Lamb's performance in early polling, his fundraising relative to other candidates, and whether any higher-profile Democrats enter the race. The resolution of this market depends on the Democratic primary election results, which will occur during Pennsylvania's primary voting period in spring 2026. Upcoming candidate announcements and early primary polls over the next several months will significantly clarify whether Lamb can consolidate Democratic primary support.

### Key factors

- Lamb's current position in Pennsylvania Democratic primary polling compared to other declared or potential candidates as of May 2026
- Total fundraising by Lamb versus competing Democratic primary candidates through the pre-primary period
- Whether high-profile Pennsylvania Democrats (senators, governors, or other statewide officials) enter or decline to enter the Democratic primary
- Lamb's performance in head-to-head matchup polling against Republican general election opponents, which influences primary donor and voter enthusiasm
- Turnout and voting patterns in the 2026 Pennsylvania Democratic primary relative to historical precedent

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatepad
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatepad
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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