# Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before Sep 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 24%, runner-up 19% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senaterec-26jun
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:50.861Z
Category: legislation · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 24%
- Runner-up: Before Dec 1, 2026 at 19%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $60

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 24¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-passed-the-senate-befor-kalshi-kxsenaterec-26jun-27jan01 |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 19¢ | −7pp | $60 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-passed-the-senate-befor-kalshi-kxsenaterec-26jun-26dec01 |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-passed-the-senate-befor-kalshi-kxsenaterec-26jun-26nov01 |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 16¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-passed-the-senate-befor-kalshi-kxsenaterec-26jun-26oct01 |
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 11¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-reconciliation-bill-passed-the-senate-befor-kalshi-kxsenaterec-26jun-26sep01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Dec 1, 2026 | Before Nov 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | 26 | 23 | 21 |
| 2026-06-25 | 22 | 16 | 20 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Before Dec 1, 2026 −7pp 23→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Before Oct 1, 2026 −7pp 22→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Before Jan 1, 2027 −4pp 26→22¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 24% probability reflects market expectations that the Senate will pass a reconciliation bill before January 1, 2027, suggesting traders view passage as unlikely but plausible within the next six months. Reconciliation bills are rare legislative vehicles that require only 51 Senate votes rather than 60, making them strategically important for major legislation but difficult to construct due to strict budget rules and party divisions. The timing structure—with progressively lower prices for earlier deadlines (11% by September, 14% by October)—suggests traders expect delays if passage occurs at all. The primary drivers are current Senate composition, whether a reconciliation framework gains bipartisan support, and the procedural timeline required for markup and floor votes. The biggest near-term catalyst is the August recess, which would significantly compress the timeline for a September 1 resolution.

### Key factors

- Current Senate vote count and leadership commitment: 51 votes needed vs. 60-vote threshold for standard bills; recent budget resolution status indicates priority level
- Reconciliation scope and pay-for mechanisms: broader spending bills face higher failure risk due to PAYGO constraints and deficit concerns
- Legislative calendar constraints: Senate workdays available between now and January 1, 2027, with August recess reducing September deadline feasibility
- Party cohesion on spending priorities: defections within either party would delay or block passage
- External fiscal events: Congressional Budget Office scores and economic data that could shift priorities away from reconciliation in this period

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senaterec-26jun
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senaterec-26jun
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.