# Will Winsome Earle-Sears be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Virginia

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 3 contracts — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatevar
Updated: 2026-06-26T14:20:49.676Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-11-03

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $105

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bert Mizusawa | 70¢ | ±0 | $105 | kalshi | /markets/will-bert-mizusawa-be-the-republican-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatevar-26-bmiz |
| Kim Farington | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kim-farington-be-the-republican-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatevar-26-kfar |
| Jason Miyares | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-miyares-be-the-republican-nominee-for-t-kalshi-kxsenatevar-26-jmiy |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 35 |
| 2026-06-12 | 43 |
| 2026-06-19 | 45 |
| 2026-06-26 | 45 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Bert Mizusawa +14pp 72→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Bert Mizusawa −7pp 77→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Kim Farington +7pp 13→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Kim Farington −5pp 9→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Kim Farington +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability indicates a 19% chance that Virginia's Republican Party nominates Winsome Earle-Sears, the state's current Lieutenant Governor, for the 2026 Senate race. The relatively low probability suggests markets view her as a secondary contender among Republican candidates in the state. Key drivers of this assessment likely include her prominence in Virginia politics and name recognition, balanced against potential competition from other established Republican figures or candidates. The nomination outcome will be largely determined by Virginia's Republican primary process, typically held in spring 2026, where party delegates or voters will select the nominee. The official nomination date or convention, likely occurring by June 2026, will fully resolve this market.

### Key factors

- Earle-Sears' current position as Lieutenant Governor provides name recognition and institutional support within Virginia's Republican Party
- Competition from other potential Republican candidates could fragment support, affecting her nomination chances relative to unified alternative candidates
- Virginia Republican Party rules for nominee selection (convention, primary, or hybrid process) will determine the mechanism through which Earle-Sears competes
- Voter or delegate sentiment on her record as Lieutenant Governor and policy positions will directly influence delegate/voter support at the nominating event
- National Republican political dynamics and endorsements could shift state-level nomination dynamics between now and the nominating convention

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senatevar
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senatevar
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.