# Senegal vs. Iraq

> Senegal leads at 50%, runner-up 36% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senegal-vs-iraq
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:39.862Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-26

## Headline

- Leader: Senegal at 50%
- Runner-up: Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq) at 36%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 50¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/senegal-vs-iraq-senegal-polymarket-0x0a164e67541bdcd46143a1d6dd768ccd30eca67f68c510ff824bd67e06ef4738 |
| Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq) | 36¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/senegal-vs-iraq-draw-senegal-vs-iraq-polymarket-0x86160e86690150e60f37bb1fdd7e3b5902b4927b87c4d9c321ed8043d9afcd7c |
| Iraq | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/senegal-vs-iraq-iraq-polymarket-0x09736de43a09191400c25861f599a6c3e8044e0123822d8e30e74e105d9b5e60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Senegal | Draw (Senegal vs. Iraq) | Iraq |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 56 | 35 | 34 |
| 2026-05-02 | 60 | 33 | 32 |
| 2026-05-03 | 60 | 34 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 53 | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-08 | 51 | — | 34 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Senegal −7pp 60→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Senegal +4pp 56→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Iraq +3pp 31→34¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Senegal is favored over Iraq in a direct matchup, with a 59% implied probability versus 33% for Iraq and 8% for other outcomes. The pricing reflects Senegal's higher FIFA ranking and recent competitive record, while Iraq's lower valuation suggests concerns about consistency at this competitive level. Market depth remains thin across related contracts, with the France vs. Senegal contract showing the most trading activity ($169 in 24-hour volume), indicating broader uncertainty about this tournament structure. The most significant driver of repricing would be team roster announcements, recent injury updates, or head-to-head performance data closer to the match date. Until then, the 26-percentage-point spread between Senegal and Iraq reflects a clear but not overwhelming market consensus.

### Key factors

- Senegal's FIFA ranking and recent tournament performance history versus Iraq's comparative record
- Market volume concentration in France vs. Senegal contract ($169 24h vol) versus near-zero volume in the direct Senegal vs. Iraq contract
- Thin liquidity across all related contracts suggests limited conviction among sophisticated traders
- Roster availability and injury status for both teams, which typically influences odds in the final weeks before competition
- Tournament format details and seeding that may affect match scheduling or competitive context

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/senegal-vs-iraq
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=senegal-vs-iraq

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.