# 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/seoul-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-06-05T07:20:12.382Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-03

## Headline

- Leader: Chong Won-oh at 77%
- Runner-up: Oh Se-hoon at 24%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $362K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chong Won-oh | 77¢ | −71pp | $165K | polymarket | /markets/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner-chong-won-oh-polymarket-0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0 |
| Oh Se-hoon | 24¢ | +72pp | $197K | polymarket | /markets/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-winner-oh-se-hoon-polymarket-0xc587bda904f031a973ad3cb57128ca011bfab0f45e6cb3734ed2227c4d4be419 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Chong Won-oh | Oh Se-hoon |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | 93 | 8 |
| 2026-05-25 | 70 | 31 |
| 2026-06-01 | 87 | 15 |
| 2026-06-04 | 1 | 99 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-04 · Oh Se-hoon +72pp 27→99¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-04 · Chong Won-oh −71pp 72→1¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · Chong Won-oh −8pp 80→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Chong Won-oh −7pp 87→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Oh Se-hoon +6pp 15→21¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are pricing Chong Won-oh as a strong favorite to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, with an 88% implied probability compared to incumbent Oh Se-hoon at 13%. Seoul's mayoral race carries significance as the capital's highest local office and typically reflects broader political sentiment in South Korea. The current probability reflects Chong's polling strength and factional positioning within Korean politics, though the election remains contested rather than predetermined. Market pricing would shift if major scandals surfaced, if polling data showed substantial movement, or if factional realignments within parties altered candidate viability. The election is scheduled for June 2026, providing the definitive resolution point; intervening months may see campaign events, debate performance, or policy announcements that shift market expectations meaningfully.

### Key factors

- Recent Seoul polling data showing Chong Won-oh's lead margin and trend direction relative to Oh Se-hoon
- Campaign events, debate performance, or scandal emergence between now and June 2026 that could shift voter preferences
- Factional support within the ruling and opposition parties, as endorsements and resource allocation influence candidate viability
- 24-hour trading volume of $26,666 across both contracts indicates moderate liquidity and reasonable price discovery
- June 2026 election date as the hard resolution point for contract settlement

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/seoul-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=seoul-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.