# Serie A: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor)

> 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce leads at 53%, runner-up 49% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie-17th-place-relegation-survivor
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.226Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce at 53%
- Runner-up: 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cremonese at 49%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce | 53¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-17th-place-relegation-survivor-lecce-polymarket-0x195645c9f40ac1fec345740a812e6a555d6af59c93bddf089acc0c62e234e99e |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cremonese | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-17th-place-relegation-survivor-cremonese-polymarket-0xb5a9af18271a42854ca350c25b9a0c80e0eda5515de232de9773cc293d0c5b9b |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cagliari | 10¢ | +31pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-17th-place-relegation-survivor-cagliari-polymarket-0xdccfa2dccd37d437afc04069811976417c47af6d5baf5ecdfd7865614655c5d8 |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Genoa | 9¢ | −1pp | $14 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-17th-place-relegation-survivor-genoa-polymarket-0xbcbae09e339a578613a6edcbc6368e2d6aa215c00a391d5813705d554f965c23 |
| 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Fiorentina | 8¢ | −24pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-17th-place-relegation-survivor-fiorentina-polymarket-0x50e3a6be0991d736b0f2b4201bb59d5d9c34c90f22eb7b26eb5a170796c62fa3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cremonese | 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | 65 | 36 | — |
| 2026-04-27 | 63 | 37 | 10 |
| 2026-04-28 | 62 | 48 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 52 | 46 | — |
| 2026-05-08 | 51 | 46 | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce −4pp 52→48¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce +3pp 49→52¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · 17th Place (Relegation Survivor): Lecce +3pp 48→51¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Lecce will finish 17th in Serie A during the 2025-26 season, barely avoiding relegation to Serie B. The 51% probability indicates near-parity between Lecce and its main competitor (at 48%), meaning outcome odds are tight but slightly favor the Salento club. Lecce's positioning is driven by their current league standing, recent form relative to rivals in the relegation zone, and the remaining fixture list. The market will sharpen considerably as the season approaches its conclusion in late May 2026, when final-day results determine which teams drop to the second division. Key drivers include Lecce's head-to-head records against other bottom-half teams, injury status of key players, managerial stability, and performance consistency over the final stretch of matches. Resolution occurs when the season ends and final Serie A standings become official.

### Key factors

- Lecce's current points total and goal differential compared to other bottom-3 contenders as of early May 2026
- Remaining fixtures: strength of schedule for Lecce versus competing clubs vying for 17th place
- Head-to-head outcomes in recent direct matchups between Lecce and other relegation-threatened teams
- Availability of Lecce's key players due to injury, suspension, or transfer activity in the final weeks
- Manager continuity and tactical adjustments made to Lecce's approach in the run-in phase

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serie-17th-place-relegation-survivor

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