# Serie A - Top Goalscorer

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 97% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie-top-goalscorer
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:27.399Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-28

## Headline

- Probability: 97% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $146

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martinez | 97¢ | ±0 | $146 | polymarket | /markets/serie-a-top-goalscorer-lautaro-martinez-polymarket-0x13b62587b14c1c63a6dc344fdd162024a41bafa57c9703a23b5fc8687fd97b1c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 90 |
| 2026-04-25 | 96 |
| 2026-05-02 | 96 |
| 2026-05-09 | 97 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market assigns a 97% probability to a specific outcome for Serie A's top goalscorer during the 2025-26 season. The extremely high probability suggests market participants have identified a heavily favored contender, likely based on recent performance metrics, playing time, and team positioning. The main drivers of this confidence level would be the leader's goal tally relative to competitors and their injury status. As the season progresses toward its conclusion, the resolution depends on remaining match fixtures and whether competitors close the gap or the favorite maintains their scoring lead. The catalyst for significant probability shifts would be major injuries to the frontrunner or an unexpected surge in goal-scoring from rivals during the final matches of the season.

### Key factors

- Current goal differential between the market favorite and nearest competitors in Serie A through May 2026
- Injury status and available playing time for both the leading scorer and their main challengers for the remainder of the season
- Remaining fixture schedule and opponent quality for teams of top scorers
- Historical volatility in Serie A top scorer races and whether 97% reflects historical accuracy of such predictions
- 24-hour trading volume ($1,373 peak shown across comparable markets) indicating whether sufficient liquidity exists to support the probability consensus

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/serie-top-goalscorer
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=serie-top-goalscorer

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.